My NCAA Basketball Championship Formula

I've figured it out. I know the basic requirements and characteristics of a College Basketball Champion. I picked UNC in 2005, Florida in 2007 and Kansas in 2008. This post is a little delayed, but I've thought this for several months, so hear me out.

A College Hoops Champion generally consists of three ingredients:

• A veteran, experienced rotation
• A deep attack, with 5-7 capable scorers
• A balanced offense, not dependent on any one scorer

Think of the past champions: They all had these three ingredients.

Now the argument is, doesn't every good team have these, thus making the argument invalid?

Not entirely. 2007 Ohio State wasn't dependent on any one player, was deep, but Mike Conley and Greg Oden were Freshmen leaders. They lost to a Florida team full of juniors, deep with no one star in particular.

Consider all legitimate contenders for this year's Tournament: Louisville, Wake Forest, Kansas, Michigan State, UConn, Memphis, Pitt, Villanova, Duke, UNC, Syracuse and Oklahoma.

Now remove teams that have a lot of young Freshmen and Sophomores in their rotation: Wake Forest, Kansas.

Now remove teams that don't have a strong scoring depth: Memphis, Oklahoma (they also depend too much on one player).

Now remove teams that don't have a balanced attack, but rely on either the backcourt or frontcourt: Duke, Louisville, Villanova

Now we're down to the teams I like: Michigan State, UConn, Pitt, UNC and Syracuse. I think any one of these teams could win it all

Then I crunched the numbers. I compared the scoring balance (based on individual scoring averages) of all of the above teams to the past 10 National Champions and, much like I expected, (Drum Line..............) UCONN is statistically most similar to past champions.

Remember Kansas. Remember Florida. Now look at UConn.

1. Of the 8 players in their main rotation (counting injured Jerome Dyson), 3 are seniors, 4 are juniors and only Kemba Walker is a Freshman.
2. Of the 7 players who log significant minutes, 6 are capable of scoring 20+ points in any game (Adrien, Price, Thabeet, Walker, Robinson, Austrie). Oh, and in case you were wondering, all of them have scored over 20 points in a game this year
3. Not only are both Guards and Forwards legitimate scorers, but they do not rely on any one player to score. Price? Adrien? Thabeet? No. Any one of 6 players can be that guy any game.

Kansas had Marion Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Darnell Jackson, Darrell Arthus, Russell Robinson, Sherron Collins and Sascha Kaun; an experienced veteran core with inside-outside balance and depth.

Florida had Taurean Green, Lee Humphrey, Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah, Al Horford and Chris Richard. Same goes.

UNC had Sean May, Rashad McCants, Raymond Felton, Marvin Williams, Jawad Williams and Jackie Manuel.


I could be wrong. But to me UConn just has the typical mold of a National Champion.