My NCAA Basketball Championship Formula

I've figured it out. I know the basic requirements and characteristics of a College Basketball Champion. I picked UNC in 2005, Florida in 2007 and Kansas in 2008. This post is a little delayed, but I've thought this for several months, so hear me out.

A College Hoops Champion generally consists of three ingredients:

• A veteran, experienced rotation
• A deep attack, with 5-7 capable scorers
• A balanced offense, not dependent on any one scorer

Think of the past champions: They all had these three ingredients.

Now the argument is, doesn't every good team have these, thus making the argument invalid?

Not entirely. 2007 Ohio State wasn't dependent on any one player, was deep, but Mike Conley and Greg Oden were Freshmen leaders. They lost to a Florida team full of juniors, deep with no one star in particular.

Consider all legitimate contenders for this year's Tournament: Louisville, Wake Forest, Kansas, Michigan State, UConn, Memphis, Pitt, Villanova, Duke, UNC, Syracuse and Oklahoma.

Now remove teams that have a lot of young Freshmen and Sophomores in their rotation: Wake Forest, Kansas.

Now remove teams that don't have a strong scoring depth: Memphis, Oklahoma (they also depend too much on one player).

Now remove teams that don't have a balanced attack, but rely on either the backcourt or frontcourt: Duke, Louisville, Villanova

Now we're down to the teams I like: Michigan State, UConn, Pitt, UNC and Syracuse. I think any one of these teams could win it all

Then I crunched the numbers. I compared the scoring balance (based on individual scoring averages) of all of the above teams to the past 10 National Champions and, much like I expected, (Drum Line..............) UCONN is statistically most similar to past champions.

Remember Kansas. Remember Florida. Now look at UConn.

1. Of the 8 players in their main rotation (counting injured Jerome Dyson), 3 are seniors, 4 are juniors and only Kemba Walker is a Freshman.
2. Of the 7 players who log significant minutes, 6 are capable of scoring 20+ points in any game (Adrien, Price, Thabeet, Walker, Robinson, Austrie). Oh, and in case you were wondering, all of them have scored over 20 points in a game this year
3. Not only are both Guards and Forwards legitimate scorers, but they do not rely on any one player to score. Price? Adrien? Thabeet? No. Any one of 6 players can be that guy any game.

Kansas had Marion Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Darnell Jackson, Darrell Arthus, Russell Robinson, Sherron Collins and Sascha Kaun; an experienced veteran core with inside-outside balance and depth.

Florida had Taurean Green, Lee Humphrey, Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah, Al Horford and Chris Richard. Same goes.

UNC had Sean May, Rashad McCants, Raymond Felton, Marvin Williams, Jawad Williams and Jackie Manuel.


I could be wrong. But to me UConn just has the typical mold of a National Champion.

For all you wishing your team acquired more veteran players:

Number of Players acquired*:

12: Denver,.................................................................................................................. Playoff wins: 0...Playoff teams: 0
11:
10:
9:
8:
7:
6: Detroit, New England, New York Giants............................................................... Playoff wins: 0...Playoff teams: 1
5:
4: Buffalo, Dallas, Miami, Kansas City, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Washington................. Playoff wins: 0...Playoff teams: 1
3: Cincinnati, New Orleans, New York Jets, Seattle................................... Playoff wins: 0...Playoff teams: 0
2: Baltimore, Chicago, Cleveland, Houston, Oakland, Philadelphia, Tennessee. Playoff wins: 4...Playoff teams: 3
1: Arizona, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Minnesota, St. Louis............... Playoff wins: 3...Playoff teams: 3
0: Atlanta, Carolina, Pittsburgh, San Diego............................................................. Playoff wins: 4...Playoff teams: 4


I believe the term I'm looking for is: Direct Correlation




*counted players were on NFL rosters in 2008

Why not to draft Beanie Wells!

I was listening to Colin Cowherd, and he was talking about slow Big Ten backs not cracking it in the NFL. Now if you ever listen to Cowherd, you know he blindly hates on the Big Ten all the time, so I took it with a grain of salt.

Then I did my own private research. There is a shocking trend of RBs from the Big Ten not panning out. I gathered data from 17 years and it is unbelievable how few actually work out.

Not only did so many first round guys fail miserably, but almost no late round guys turned out to be diamonds in the rough or even solid role players. The closest thing was several guys converted to FB, but unfortunately too many of those guys were 2nd or 3rd round picks, and you are looking for a Pro Bowl FB if you draft a guy that high.

Just look at the data below. I bolded the picks that worked out. It is astonishing. I credit it to two things: 1. Big Ten play is slow, so average RBs look like legitimate NFL prospects. 2. Linemen in the Big Ten are very big and very skilled. They even transition well to the NFL. Average RBs look great behind good O-Lines.

Now you have 3 Big Ten RBs who appear locks to be drafted. Let me give you their combine 40-times:
- Chris Wells 4.59
- Shonn Greene 4.63
- Javon Ringer 4.53

Buyer beware NFL!

Big Ten RBs in the NFL

2008
Rashard Mendenhall – Illinois – Round 1 - 58 yps
Mike Hart – Michigan – Round 6 – 9 yps

2007
Tony Hunt – Penn State – Round 3 – 13 yps
Antonio Pittman – Ohio State – Round 4 – 218 yps

2006
Laurence Maroney – Minnesota – Round 1 – 517 yps
Brian Calhoun – Wisconsin – Round 3 – 27 yps

2005
Maurice Clarrett – Ohio State – Round 3 – 0 yps
Marion Barber – Minnesota – Round 4 – 763 yps – 1 Pro Bowl, Started 1 season
Anthony Davis – Wisconsin – Round 7 – 0 yps
Noah Herron – Northwestern –Round 7 – 137 yps

2004
Chris Perry – Michigan – Round 1 – 121 yps

2003
Larry Johnson – Penn State – Round 1 – 939 yps – 1 AP All-NFL, 2 Pro Bowls, Started 3 seasons

2002
T.J. Duckett – Michigan State – Round 1 – 420 yps – Started 1 season
Ladell Betts – Iowa – Round 2 – 424 yps – Started 1 season
Jonathan Wells – Ohio State – Round 4 – 292 yps – Started 1 season

2001
Michael Bennett – Wisconsin – Round 1 – 403 yps – 1 Pro Bowl – Started 3 seasons
Anthony Thomas – Michigan – Round 2 – 486 yps – Started 3 seasons

2000
Ron Dayne – Wisconsin – Round 1 – 413 yps – Started 1 season
Michael Wiley – Ohio State – Round 5 – 168 yps
Thomas Hamner – Minnesota – Round 6 – 0 yps

1999
Joe Montgomery – Ohio State – Round 2 – 93 yps – Started 1 season
Sedrick Irivin – Michigan State – Round 4 – 91 yps
Sean Bennett – Northwestern – Round 4 – 32 yps

1998
Curtis Enis – Penn State – Round 1 – 499 yps – Started 2 seasons
Robert Holcombe – Illinois – Round 2 – 163 yps – Started 3 seasons
Chris Floyd – Michigan – Round 3 – 11 yps
Tavian Banks – Iowa –Round 4 – 111 yps
Chris Howard – Michigan – Round 5 – 41 yps
Eddie Watson – Purdue – Round 7 – 9 yps

1997
Sedrick Shaw – Iowa – Round 3 – 86 yps
Nicky Sualua – Ohio State – Round 4 – 0 yps
Steve Lee – Indiana – Round 6 – 0 yps

1996
Tim Biakabutuka – Michigan – Round 1 – 421 yps – Started 2 seasons
Eddie George – Ohio State – Round 1 – 1,160 yps – 1 AP All-NFL, 4 Pro Bowls, Started 8 seasons
Mike Alstott – Purdue – Round 2 – 463 yps – 3 AP All-NFL, 6 Pro Bowls, Started 9 seasons
Jon Witman – Penn State – Round 3 – 21 yps – Started 3 seasons
Brian Milne – Penn State – Round 4 – 25 yps – Started 2 seasons
Scott Greene – Michigan State – Round 6 – 39 yps – Started 1 season
Stephen Pitts – Penn State – Round 6 – 0 yps
Mike Archie – Penn State – Round 7 – 8 yps

1995
Ki-Jana Carter – Penn State – Round 1 – 114 yps
Tyrone Wheatley – Michigan – Round 1 – 462 yps – Started 4 seasons
Terrell Fletcher – Wisconsin – Round 2 – 234 yps

1994
Raymont Harris – Ohio State – Round 4 – 358 yps – Started 3 seasons
Mark Montgomery – Wisconsin – Round 7 – 0 yps

1993
Robert Smith – Ohio State – Round 1 – 852 yps – 2 Pro Bowls, Started 6 seasons
Ty Hallock – Michigan State – Round 7 – 8 yps – Started 3 seasons

1992
Vaughn Dunbar – Indiana – Round 1 – 234 yps – Started 1 season
Scottie Graham – Ohio State – Round 7 – 211 yps