I havn't been terribly active lately for a number of reasons, but reading up lately there are several misconceptions about what we will do on draft day
so basically I'll go position by position posting what will I think will happen, and why I think so
Finally, I will give my odds for the position being drafted by the early (1st,2nd) middle (3rd,4th) and late (5th,6th,7th) rounds:
QB:
With three veteran QBs on the roster I think most Eagle fans realize the only possible addition would be in the last rounds as competition for Holcomb/Feeley and/or insurance as a backup for McNabb. I could see us investing a 6th or 7th in a rookie QB. I would have thought we would draft QB a little earlier (4th or 5th), but the addition of Holcomb, who actually could possibly be a better backup than Feeley, reduced the likelyhood of a midrounder spent on a guy who would have to upset a veteran to make the roster.
Odds of drafting a QB by:
early - 0%
middle - 5%
late - 65%
RB:
Ah, the infamous "Big Back" rally is back again! While I agree that a power back would help this team a lot, I don't know if we'll invest in one early. There are only really 3 backs on this roster, while most teams carry four. That tells me that there most likely will be a new RB on the roster. At the beginning of this offseason, Westbrook and Moats were our sole backs. I'm thinking we were looking to add a back through Free Agency (which wound up being Buckhalter) and one later. On the other hand Ryan Moats' role on this team will grow into even a greater mistery if a RB is added early, which again reinforces my preference not to add a RB early. Running Backs grow on trees in this day and age, and just look around the division (Brandon Jacobs and Marion Barber) for perfect examples of day two picks being great options in the backfield. And yes, they are "big backs" as well. This is another reason why the reported interest in Brian Leonard somewhat surprised me. I think the second round is too early to draft a rotation guy, which Leonard would essentially be. He isn't a feature back and probably can't be a fulltime NFL Full Back. He's a Playmaker, no question about it, but you're looking for a starter in the second round. Basically I would be surprised if the Eagles went early with a situational back, considering the FOs previous neglect of the role in the past and the pressure to get former day 1 pick Moats and the FOs preferred FA RB Buckhalter on the field.
Odds of drafting a RB by:
early - 20%
middle - 67%
late - 90%
WR:
ESPN's analysts are idiots a lot of the time. And Mel Kiper is not an idiot, but he isn't familiar with the Eagles whatsoever. The Eagles will really probably not draft a WR early, and I see no reason to draft one at all. We have 7 guys already who can play, and another guy in there would probably force either Bloom or Bethel to be cut, as well as either the clutch Lewis or last year's 4th rounder Avant. Plus, a rookie would cut into either BAskett or Curtis' playing time. Now why would you risk a 1st round pick on a WR, when we already have a young WR who has proven he can play and will only get better? I believe it was Sal Palantonio who said that we couldn't pass up a Dwayne Bowe or Robert Meachem if they fell to #26. I strongly disagree with the issues we have defensively. I would actually strongly agree with trading down if one of those guys is available at #26. Furthermore, doesn't Stallworth's departure, for really not that much money, tell you how the Front Office feels about the WR position?
Odds of drafting a WR by:
early - 5%
middle - 7%
late - 10%
TE:
We need depth here. Bartrum was the man but will probably be a very immobile man if he ever decides to put on a football helmet again. We have two LSs on the training camp roster in Dorenbos and Jeremy Cain, and neither can play TE. We will not go into '07 with only two TEs, plus LJ Smith's contract is running out. So while we need depth, a potential starter could be needed too. TEs are getting a lot of money around the league and LJ as you prototypical pass catching TE will want big bucks too. I think his strong improvement in his blocking is the main reason to resign him but that's just my opinion. Right now it looks very likely that a TE will be drafted somewhere. Some like Greg Olsen in the first if he falls, and I wouldn't disagree. I wouldn't mind a day 1 TE like LJ Smith himself was several years ago, allowing more 2-TE sets. But the problem is that this year's TE crop is very poor. I see only 4 guys who could possibly go in the first two rounds. Still, a 2nd or 3rd round TE seems very reasonable to me.
Odds of drafting a TE by:
early - 30%
middle - 75%
late - 95%
OL:
This is the strength of this team. There is no question about that. Most people see 10 solid players on the O-Line and see no reason why the FO would still adress this area. I disagree and I am in a very small minority if not completely on my own. Remember we have TWO aging OTs. People also point at their two future replacements: Justice and MJG. I agree that Justice will start for this team in the near future, but why so many people see MJG as a starter for this team (moving Herremans or Andrews outside) confuses me a bit. Not once have I ever seen such expectation out of a 4th round pick who isn't even at playing weight. Now I too would like to see MJG step in eventually, but if the FO doesn't see a starter in him, Jon Runyan's replacement could be drafted soon. Added to all of this, we all know how important the O-Line is to the FO, and rightfully so. I'm not saying we will, but I'm saying don't rule out an O-Lineman in Round 1. If a top talent falls to us in the later rounds like many argue MJG did last year, that could also be an option.
Odds of drafting an OL by:
early - 15%
middle - 20%
late - 30%
DE:
With two highly paid veteran DEs and two strong situational pass rushers, there is talent at this position. Unfortunately this didn't translate into production last year. Darren Howard I think has this upcoming year to show whether or not he was a good signing. He could be cut next year if he doesn't produce. Furthermore, Jevon Kearse suffered the nastiest injury to an Eagle since JR Reid and who knows how he can recover. Juqua and Cole are very good players, and very popular in my book, but aren't guys who are best when starting every down. There is a good chance that either Kearse or Howard won't be good enough next year, or that the two injury prone DEs could get hurt again. Added to that is that both probably won't be our starters by 2010 at the latest. Jerome McDougle is finally 100% expendable, so I would like to see depth and/or a future starter drafted.
Odds of drafting a DE by:
early - 40%
middle - 60 %
late - 80%
DT:
We need help here...badly. Unfortunately we're gonna have to wait a year for the reinforcements to come, since Bunkley has to show us what he can do. You don't pull a Millen here and draft another DT early. Frankly, a lot rests on Brodrick Bunkley's shoulders and honestly, that's the pressure that a 1st round pick should have to deal with. Our rookies are often thrown into rotations rather than forced to be "the guy". Bunkley needs to be the guy. Maybe we'll draft for depth since Rayburn and Ramsey both are expendable. They're ok, but could use some competition. I really would like to see a late round guy added, and the FO likes to give late round DTs a shot. A lot of people want to see a "run stuffer" added, IMO the defense equivalent to the "big back". If you add a 330 lb DT you're going to have him rotate with Bunkley. This puts Bunkley next to Reagor in the rotation rather than being in a role that you would like your top 15 pick to be. Plus we all know how many massive 330 lb DTs have played here in years past...
Odds of drafting a DT by:
early - 0%
middle - 25%
late - 50%
LB:
We have a lot of guys here, and I mean a LOT. There are 8 or 9 guys that are decent LBs on this roster. There is no space for another LB, especially considering the necessity to play Gocong and McCoy. If Poz is there ay #26, while is quite likely, there will be a lot of people screaming his name (while probably mispronouncing it), but Poz will not be an Eagle unless one or more of our LBs are traded away.
Odds of drafting a LB by:
early - 0%
middle - 0%
late - 3%
CB:
Rod Hood left, people want a replacement. Why draft a Nickel Corner in the first round? I don't know frankly but a lot of people seem to like the idea and it looks like it might happen. I like Billy Jim and Joselio as depth guys, remember James was a starter once upon a time. But I think people seem very worried about the CB position if either Lito or Sheldon go down, and past years have shown us that they very much could. Remember also that this CB class is quite strong and deep. I think we need depth, and I would adress this in the mid rounds, but if a Safety/Corner tweener is there early, I'll take my chances. See below for Safety breakdown.
Odd of drafting a CB by:
early - 50%
middle - 80%
late - 90%
S
There is a wide open spot that looks reserved for a rookie to settle into. Michael Lewis left and the Eagles are looking to hire a young man fresh out of college to fill the job. Mike Doss interviewed for the job but the Eagles were looking to go another way. This tells me that there will be a rookie Safety on this roster. It could be a CB/S tweener, like Merriwheather or Nelson, who could fill two needs at the same time. I am certain that a Safety will be drafted by round 3 at the latest. Remember a CB/S tweener could serve as a Hood replacement, insurance for Lito and Sheldon and future replacement for Dawkins. I don't mind Cons as our starting SS next year, but I think the wide open roster spot is too clear to oversee
Odds of drafting a S by:
early - 70%
middle - 99%
late - 100%
Well there's my shtick, i hope the yawn smileys are kept to a minimum...
