I was too busy to do a full Power Rankings this week, so I just did a Quick RSI this week. A QRSI takes last week's RSI number and adjusts it to this week's results. It isn't a full RSI because it doesn't change the value of past wins.
Once again, if two teams are within 1 RSI point of each other, don't get all wound up, it isn't statistically significant.
Here are the Week 10 Power Rankings:
The Big Boys
1. New Orleans Saints (9-0) - Same - 13.778 - W @ STL
2. Indianapolis Colts (9-0) - Same - 13.556 - W vs. NE
3. Cincinnati Bengals (7-2) - Same - 13.222 - W @ @ PIT
4. Minnesota Vikings (8-1) - Up 1 - 9.222 - W vs. DET
5. San Diego Chargers (6-3) - Up 5 - 6.444 - W vs. PHI
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) - Down 1 - 6.333 - L vs. CIN
7. New England Patriots (6-3) - Down 1 - 6.333 - L @ IND
The Sidekicks
8. Denver Broncos (6-3) - Down 4 - 5.889 - L @ WAS
9. Dallas Cowboys (6-3) - Down 3 - 5.222 - L W GB
10. Baltimore Ravens (5-4) - Up 1 - 4.444 - W @ CLE
11. Arizona Cardinals (6-3) - Up 1 - 4.333 - W vs. SEA
12. Atlanta Falcons (5-4) - Down 3 - 3.000 - L @ CAR
The Average Joes
13. Miami Dolphins (4-5) - Up 2 - 0.889 - W vs. TB
14. Green Bay Packers (5-4) - Up 5 - 0.778 - W vs. DAL
15. Houston Texans (5-4) - Same - 0.667 - Bye
16. New York Giants (5-4) - Up 1 - 0.444 - Bye
17. Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) - Down 4 - 0.000 - L @ SD
The Nobody's
18. Carolina Panthers (4-5) - Up 3 - -0.111 - W vs. ATL
19. San Francisco 49ers (4-5) - Up 1 - 1.000 - W vs. CHI
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) - Up 2 - -1.444 - W @ NYJ
21. New York Jets (4-5) - Down 4 - -1.556 - L vs. JAX
22. Chicago Bears (4-5) - Down 4 - -2.222 - L @ SF
The Forgettables
23. Tennessee Titans (3-6) - Up 2 - -4.222 - W vs. BUF
24. Seattle Seahawks (3-6) - Same - -6.444 - L @ ARI
25. Cleveland Browns (1-8) - Up 1 - -6.778 - L vs. BAL
26. Buffalo Bills (3-6) - Down 3 - -7.111 - L @ TEN
The Losers
27. Washington Redskins (3-6) - Up 4 - -8.333 - W vs. DEN
28. Oakland Raiders (2-7) - Down 1 - -9.444 - L vs. KC
29. Detroit Lions (1-8) - Down 1 - -10.333 - L @ MIN
30. Kansas City Chiefs (2-7) - Same - -10.778 - W @ OAK
31. St. Louis Rams (1-8) - Up 1 - -11.889 - L vs. NO
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) - Down 3 - -12.556 - L @ MIA
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Week 9 Power Rankings: With RSI
This week, I did something very different for my rankings. Up until now, I had simply slotted teams up and down the board due to last week's results. Now 8 weeks into the season, I felt like I could start crunching numbers and weighing wins statistically across the season.
I developed a very simple formula to determine a number called RSI (Record Strength Indicator).
The RSI is based on wins and losses as weighed by my most recent power rankings.
A win is weighed as following: w=33-last ranking. So, the number ranges from 1 through 32. For example, Seattle's win against last week's #29 team (Detroit) would yield a score of 4. (33-29=4).
A loss is weighed very similarly: l=last ranking. So, for example, Green Bay's loss to last week's #32 team (Tampa Bay) would yield a score of 32.
I added all w's and subtracted all l's, then divided that number by the number of games played to finally acquire my RSI value.
This surprisingly held relatively true with the rankings I had previously posted before I crunched the numbers. The only team it appears I was really wrong about was San Diego, who ranked 10 slots higher than I had them last week.
I do realize that to get even better results, I should do the test again with the new rankings posted below, but despite what it may look like, I do have a life. Also, when teams are +/- 1 RSI point of each other, it isn't a significant difference. So don't get all riled up because a team like Dallas ranks higher than Pittsburgh and New England. Their RSI are too similar to draw a true conclusion. For clarity's sake, I bunched these types of teams together.
So let's see how this list turns out.
1. New Orleans Saints - (8-0) - Same - 15.375
2. Indianapolis Colts - (8-0) - Same - 12.125
3. Cincinnati Bengals - (6-2) - Up 3 - 11.625
4. Denver Broncos - (6-2) - Same - 10.500
5. Minnesota Vikings (7-1) - Down 2 - 9.750
6. Dallas Cowboys (6-2) - Up 4 - 7.625
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) - Same - 7.500
8. New England Patriots (6-2) - Down 3 - 7.375
9. Atlanta Falcons (5-3) - Up 2 - 6.000
10. San Diego Chargers (5-3) - Up 10 - 4.750
11. Baltimore Ravens (4-4) - Down 3 - 4.125
12. Arizona Cardinals (5-3) - Same - 3.750
13. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3) - Down 4 - 1.250
14. Houston Texans (5-4) - Up 1 - 0.667
15. Miami Dolphins (3-5) - Up 1 - 0.500
16. New York Giants (5-4) - Down 3 - 0.444
17. New York Jets (4-4) - Same - 0.125
18. Chicago Bears (4-4) - Same - 0.000
19. Green Bay Packers (4-4) - Down 5 - -2.500
20. San Francisco 49ers (3-5) - Same - -3.000
21. Carolina Panthers (3-5) - Same - -3.125
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4) - Up 2 - -3.625
23. Buffalo Bills (3-5) - Same - -4.875
24. Seattle Seahawks (3-5) - Down 2 - -5.750
25. Tennessee Titans (2-6) - Up 3 - -6.000
26. Cleveland Browns (1-7) - Up 5 -6.250
27. Oakland Raiders (2-6) - Same - 6.875
28. Detroit Lions (1-7) - Up 1 - -11.000
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7) - Up 3 - -12.250
30. Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) - Down 5 - -12.875
31. Washington Redskins (2-6) - Down 5 - -13.000
32. St. Louis Rams (1-7) - Down 2 - -13.250
I developed a very simple formula to determine a number called RSI (Record Strength Indicator).
The RSI is based on wins and losses as weighed by my most recent power rankings.
A win is weighed as following: w=33-last ranking. So, the number ranges from 1 through 32. For example, Seattle's win against last week's #29 team (Detroit) would yield a score of 4. (33-29=4).
A loss is weighed very similarly: l=last ranking. So, for example, Green Bay's loss to last week's #32 team (Tampa Bay) would yield a score of 32.
I added all w's and subtracted all l's, then divided that number by the number of games played to finally acquire my RSI value.
This surprisingly held relatively true with the rankings I had previously posted before I crunched the numbers. The only team it appears I was really wrong about was San Diego, who ranked 10 slots higher than I had them last week.
I do realize that to get even better results, I should do the test again with the new rankings posted below, but despite what it may look like, I do have a life. Also, when teams are +/- 1 RSI point of each other, it isn't a significant difference. So don't get all riled up because a team like Dallas ranks higher than Pittsburgh and New England. Their RSI are too similar to draw a true conclusion. For clarity's sake, I bunched these types of teams together.
So let's see how this list turns out.
1. New Orleans Saints - (8-0) - Same - 15.375
2. Indianapolis Colts - (8-0) - Same - 12.125
3. Cincinnati Bengals - (6-2) - Up 3 - 11.625
4. Denver Broncos - (6-2) - Same - 10.500
5. Minnesota Vikings (7-1) - Down 2 - 9.750
6. Dallas Cowboys (6-2) - Up 4 - 7.625
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) - Same - 7.500
8. New England Patriots (6-2) - Down 3 - 7.375
9. Atlanta Falcons (5-3) - Up 2 - 6.000
10. San Diego Chargers (5-3) - Up 10 - 4.750
11. Baltimore Ravens (4-4) - Down 3 - 4.125
12. Arizona Cardinals (5-3) - Same - 3.750
13. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3) - Down 4 - 1.250
14. Houston Texans (5-4) - Up 1 - 0.667
15. Miami Dolphins (3-5) - Up 1 - 0.500
16. New York Giants (5-4) - Down 3 - 0.444
17. New York Jets (4-4) - Same - 0.125
18. Chicago Bears (4-4) - Same - 0.000
19. Green Bay Packers (4-4) - Down 5 - -2.500
20. San Francisco 49ers (3-5) - Same - -3.000
21. Carolina Panthers (3-5) - Same - -3.125
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4) - Up 2 - -3.625
23. Buffalo Bills (3-5) - Same - -4.875
24. Seattle Seahawks (3-5) - Down 2 - -5.750
25. Tennessee Titans (2-6) - Up 3 - -6.000
26. Cleveland Browns (1-7) - Up 5 -6.250
27. Oakland Raiders (2-6) - Same - 6.875
28. Detroit Lions (1-7) - Up 1 - -11.000
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7) - Up 3 - -12.250
30. Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) - Down 5 - -12.875
31. Washington Redskins (2-6) - Down 5 - -13.000
32. St. Louis Rams (1-7) - Down 2 - -13.250
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Week 8 Power Rankings
The top got rattled a little this week. New Orleans got a serious challenge from Atlanta. San Francisco kept Indy's high-power offense in check, Minnesota had to survive a tough second-half push from Green Bay and Denver's undefeated record is now a thing of the past. With New England, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati all off this past weekend, the top now is a lot more muddy.
I didn't have a lot of time this week, so I'm just going to list the teams instead of commenting on all of them:
The Big Boys
1. New Orleans Saints (7-0) - Same - W vs. ATL
2. Indianapolis Colts (7-0) - Same - W vs. SF
3. Minnesota Vikings (7-1) - Up 1 - L W @ GB
The Sidekicks
4. Denver Broncos (6-1) - Down 1 - L @ BAL
5. New England Patriots (5-2) - Same - Bye
6. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) - Same - Bye
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) - Same - Bye
8. Baltimore Ravens (4-3) - Up 1 - W vs. DEN
9. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) - Up 1 - W vs. NYG
10. Dallas Cowboys (5-2) - Up 3 - W vs. SEA
11. Atlanta Falcons (4-3) - Up 3 - L @ NO
The Average Joes
12. Arizona Cardinals (4-3) - Down 2 - L vs. CAR
13. New York Giants (5-3) - Down 5 - L @ PHI
14. Green Bay Packers (4-3) - Down 2 - L vs. MIN
The Nobody's
15. Houston Texans (5-3) - Same - W @ BUF
16. Miami Dolphins (3-4) - Same - W @ NYJ
17. New York Jets (4-4) - Same - L vs. MIA
18. Chicago Bears (4-3) - Same - W vs. CLE
The Forgettables
19. San Diego Chargers (4-3) - Same - W vs. OAK
20. San Francisco 49ers (3-4) - Same - L @ IND
21. Carolina Panthers (3-4) - Up 3 - W @ ARI
22. Seattle Seahawks (2-5) - Down 1 - L @ DAL
23. Buffalo Bills (3-5) - Same - L vs. HOU
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4) - Down 2 - L @ TEN
The Losers
25. Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) - Down 1 - Bye
26. Washington Redskins (2-5) - Down 1 - Bye
27. Oakland Raiders (2-6) - Down 1 - L @ SD
28. Tennessee Titans (1-6) - Up 2 - W vs. JAX
29. Detroit Lions (1-6) - Down 4 - L vs. STL
30. St. Louis Rams (1-7) - Up 2 - W @ DET
31. Cleveland Browns (1-7) - Down 2 - L @ CHI
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) - Down 1 - Bye
I didn't have a lot of time this week, so I'm just going to list the teams instead of commenting on all of them:
The Big Boys
1. New Orleans Saints (7-0) - Same - W vs. ATL
2. Indianapolis Colts (7-0) - Same - W vs. SF
3. Minnesota Vikings (7-1) - Up 1 - L W @ GB
The Sidekicks
4. Denver Broncos (6-1) - Down 1 - L @ BAL
5. New England Patriots (5-2) - Same - Bye
6. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) - Same - Bye
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) - Same - Bye
8. Baltimore Ravens (4-3) - Up 1 - W vs. DEN
9. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) - Up 1 - W vs. NYG
10. Dallas Cowboys (5-2) - Up 3 - W vs. SEA
11. Atlanta Falcons (4-3) - Up 3 - L @ NO
The Average Joes
12. Arizona Cardinals (4-3) - Down 2 - L vs. CAR
13. New York Giants (5-3) - Down 5 - L @ PHI
14. Green Bay Packers (4-3) - Down 2 - L vs. MIN
The Nobody's
15. Houston Texans (5-3) - Same - W @ BUF
16. Miami Dolphins (3-4) - Same - W @ NYJ
17. New York Jets (4-4) - Same - L vs. MIA
18. Chicago Bears (4-3) - Same - W vs. CLE
The Forgettables
19. San Diego Chargers (4-3) - Same - W vs. OAK
20. San Francisco 49ers (3-4) - Same - L @ IND
21. Carolina Panthers (3-4) - Up 3 - W @ ARI
22. Seattle Seahawks (2-5) - Down 1 - L @ DAL
23. Buffalo Bills (3-5) - Same - L vs. HOU
24. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4) - Down 2 - L @ TEN
The Losers
25. Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) - Down 1 - Bye
26. Washington Redskins (2-5) - Down 1 - Bye
27. Oakland Raiders (2-6) - Down 1 - L @ SD
28. Tennessee Titans (1-6) - Up 2 - W vs. JAX
29. Detroit Lions (1-6) - Down 4 - L vs. STL
30. St. Louis Rams (1-7) - Up 2 - W @ DET
31. Cleveland Browns (1-7) - Down 2 - L @ CHI
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) - Down 1 - Bye
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Week 7 Power Rankings
Week 7 didn't tell us much. A lot of blowouts. The bottom 12 went 1-7 and while Minnesota lost, they hardly were exposed in any way. The middle got shaken up a little, though, as Atlanta and Chicago looked really bad, while Arizona and Pittsburgh are looking better each week. 1 through 5 and 20 through 32 are virtually unchanged, so this week is all about the middle.
The Big Boys
1. New Orleans Saints (6-0) - Same - What a comeback last week. The defense played exceptionally well in the second half, and performances by Jonathan Vilma and Darren Sharper saved the game. Drew Brees wasn't great, but played his best football in the red zone.
2. Indianapolis Colts (6-0) - Same - The Colts' opponents combined record: 11-26. Still, Indy has won 15 straight regular season games and their defense is now top 10.
3. Denver Broncos (6-0) - Up 1 - They've been the surprise of the season and have proven to be a lot more physical this year. But that physicality will be tested the next two weeks against Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
4. Minnesota Vikings (6-1) - Down 1 - What a game against Pittsburgh. Minnesota played well enough to win, but just got beaten by a team that simply played better than them. Chester Taylor did not play well enough to win.
The Sidekicks
5. New England Patriots (5-2) - Same - The Pats haven't lost a regular season game to an NFC team since September, 2005. Brandon Meriweather had two picks last week and is really starting to come into his own.
6. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) - Up 2 - Cincy finally had a truly dominant performance last week. Carson Palmer had 5 TDs, Cedric Benson had 189 yards to take the NFL lead in rushing and Chad Ochocinco was unstoppable. The new smashmouth, run-first offense has been the main difference between this year and every other year under Marvin Lewis.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) - Up 2 - What a win over Minnesota. The Linebackers harassed Brett Favre all game and notched 3 sacks and two TDs. Fantastic downfield blocking allowed the Steelers to turn in big plays all game. Troy Polamalu's tackle on Sidney Rice at the 1-yard line in the third quarter may be the most unheralded great play of the week, since Pittsburgh would end up holding the Vikings out of the end zone on the next 4 plays.
8. New York Giants (5-2) - Down 2 - The Giants have to be concerned. Their only decent win this year was against Dallas. The Offensive Line isn't nearly as dominant as last season and Brandon Jacobs hasn't gone over 100 yards in 10 games. Also, Eli Manning has looked really bad the last two weeks. A win at Philly this week is almost a must for the Giants, who have a much tougher stretch at the end of the year.
9. Baltimore Ravens (3-3) - Same - They lost three tough games against quality opponents before their bye, and it doesn't get any easier for the Ravens, as they host the undefeated Broncos on Sunday.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) - Same - The Eagles' defense is the most opportunistic that Andy Reid has ever had with 19 forced turnovers so far this year. Offensively, though, they're still too reliant on the big play.
11. Arizona Cardinals (4-2) - Up 4 - The most unheralded part of the Cardinals season last year was their playmaking defense. That defense was missing through 4 games, but has come alive in the last 2 games. Eli Manning was completely confused all game last week as the Cardinals appear to be getting over their Super Bowl hangover.
12. Green Bay Packers (4-2) - Same - One of the few relative unknowns left. They've completely destroyed the weaker teams they've played and have lost tough games to Minnesota and Cincy. With Brett Favre coming into town for Favregeddon II this Sunday, there isn't a better time for the Pack to make a statement.
13. Dallas Cowboys (4-2) - Up 1 - Miles Austin has emerged as a true playmaker for a Cowboys offense that is top 10 in all major categories. Their strong win over Atlanta was the fifth straight win for the 'Boys coming off of a bye.
14. Atlanta Falcons (4-2) - Down 7 - It's not that they got dominated badly enough to be dropped 7 spots, it's that their best wins (Niners, Bears, Dolphins) are looking worse and worse every week. Michael Turner is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this year.
The Average Joes
15. Houston Texans (4-3) - Up 2 - Who is this player: Leads the NFL in passing yards, has a 104.4 passer rating and has two 4-TD games this season. Answer: Matt Schaub. Also, Houston's run defense has pulled the biggest 180 of the NFL season by allowing under 49 yards per game the past 4 weeks.
16. Miami Dolphins (2-4) - Up 2 - Yes, they choked. But they were the first team all season to challenge the Saints. One of the most underrated story lines of the season has been the comeback of Ricky Williams, who put up 80 yards and 3 TDs on just 9 carries on New Orleans.
17. New York Jets (4-3) - Up 2 - They lost Leon Washington for the year, but the Jets have become the NFL's best rushing team behind Thomas Jones and new weapon Shonn Greene. Calvin Pace had a career day with 7 tackles, 3 sacks and 2 FFs against the Raiders.
18. Chicago Bears (3-3) - Down 5 - Other than a Week 2 win over Pittsburgh, the Bears have had nothing to show for this season. Jay Cutler's 82.9 passer rating is the lowest of his career and Matt Forte had just 6 carries in an awful loss in Cincinnati.
The Nobodys
19. San Diego Chargers (3-3) - Up 1 - The Bolts' running game finally got going in a blowout win at Kansas City. Also, Defensive Coordinator finally turned up the blitzing, resulting in a breakout, 2-sack day for Shaun Phillips, who previously hadn't notched a single sack this season.
20. San Francisco 49ers (3-3) - Down 4 - The Shaun Hill love-fest appears to be over after an awful first half against Houston, but Niners fans are excited about the play of Alex Smith in the second half last week. He looked as good as ever in his so-far disappointing NFL career. Also, who told Vernon Davis to start playing up to his ability?
21. Seattle Seahawks (2-4) - Same - When the Seahawks allow more than 0 points this season, they're 0-4. With a road trip to Dallas this weekend, they're going to have to win in a shootout.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) - Same - Their next two games are against Tennessee and Kansas City, so it's very likely they'll be a 5-3 fraud by Week 9. Also, the NFL's 31st ranked pass defense could be without their best CB, Rasheen Mathis, for the near future.
The Forgettables
23. Buffalo Bills (3-4) - Up 1 - The offense is terrible. But luckily, the defense has picked up the slack. Rookie FS Jairus Byrd has been the rookie of the year so far, and had his second straight 2-INT day against the Panthers. The Bills scored all of their points off of turnovers on Sunday and have allowed just 25 total points over the last 3 weeks.
24. Carolina Panthers (2-4) - Down 1 - Jake Delhomme is on pace for 35 interceptions this season. Quarterbacks often get too much blame for losses, but Delhomme is by far the biggest reason for Carolina's struggles this year.
25. Detroit Lions (1-5) - Up 1 - Matthew Stafford is practicing again, but is anyone going to actually watch the Lions play the Rams this Sunday?
26. Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) - Down 1 - And... all the momentum is gone after getting destroyed by the Chargers. Matt Cassel had his worst game of the season and Larry Johnson is being asked to stay away from the team. A young team needs veterans and coaches to look up to, not have them bashing each other on Twitter. Johnson needs to go.
The Losers
27. Washington Redskins (2-5) - Same - The botched snap in the 4th quarter against the Eagles summed up the season in one play for the Redskins. The snap his the Right Guard. How on earth can a snap hit the Right Guard? The team has talent and ability, but is just the least clutch team of all time.
28. Oakland Raiders (2-5) - Same - 'Coach Tom Cable said he needed to make a quarterback change because JaMarcus Russell was "out of sorts" in a three-turnover performance. Russell's response: "Actually I wasn't."' JaMarcus Russell is living proof as to why the NFL needs a rookie cap. Russell simply does not care, and is making 10 million a year for his services.
29. Cleveland Browns (1-6) - Same - Derek Anderson does some things well, but he just isn't accurate in the slightest bit. He was 12-for-29 in Sunday's loss to Green Bay and is completing just under 44% of his passes on the season. The Browns know what they have in Anderson and they aren't winning many games this year. Just start Brady Quinn again and see whether or not they need to acquire a new QB in the off-season.
30. Tennessee Titans (0-6) - Same - Titans' owner Bud Adams is insisting Jeff Fisher start Vince Young this week against Jacksonville. While the main problem with Tennessee probably isn't QB Kerry Collins and I'm by no means a Vince Young fan, they might as well use this season to find out what they really have in Young.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) - Same - Even in London, Tampa has no shot against a team like New England. The Josh Johnson era may be coming to an end, as rookie Josh Freeman got his first action of the season and with a bye this week, Freeman would have two weeks to prepare for his first start.
32. St. Louis Rams (0-7) - Same - They've now lost 17 straight games. They get to play Detroit this week, and if they don't win, they may have to wait until mid-December when they play Tennessee to break this streak.
The Big Boys
1. New Orleans Saints (6-0) - Same - What a comeback last week. The defense played exceptionally well in the second half, and performances by Jonathan Vilma and Darren Sharper saved the game. Drew Brees wasn't great, but played his best football in the red zone.
2. Indianapolis Colts (6-0) - Same - The Colts' opponents combined record: 11-26. Still, Indy has won 15 straight regular season games and their defense is now top 10.
3. Denver Broncos (6-0) - Up 1 - They've been the surprise of the season and have proven to be a lot more physical this year. But that physicality will be tested the next two weeks against Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
4. Minnesota Vikings (6-1) - Down 1 - What a game against Pittsburgh. Minnesota played well enough to win, but just got beaten by a team that simply played better than them. Chester Taylor did not play well enough to win.
The Sidekicks
5. New England Patriots (5-2) - Same - The Pats haven't lost a regular season game to an NFC team since September, 2005. Brandon Meriweather had two picks last week and is really starting to come into his own.
6. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) - Up 2 - Cincy finally had a truly dominant performance last week. Carson Palmer had 5 TDs, Cedric Benson had 189 yards to take the NFL lead in rushing and Chad Ochocinco was unstoppable. The new smashmouth, run-first offense has been the main difference between this year and every other year under Marvin Lewis.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) - Up 2 - What a win over Minnesota. The Linebackers harassed Brett Favre all game and notched 3 sacks and two TDs. Fantastic downfield blocking allowed the Steelers to turn in big plays all game. Troy Polamalu's tackle on Sidney Rice at the 1-yard line in the third quarter may be the most unheralded great play of the week, since Pittsburgh would end up holding the Vikings out of the end zone on the next 4 plays.
8. New York Giants (5-2) - Down 2 - The Giants have to be concerned. Their only decent win this year was against Dallas. The Offensive Line isn't nearly as dominant as last season and Brandon Jacobs hasn't gone over 100 yards in 10 games. Also, Eli Manning has looked really bad the last two weeks. A win at Philly this week is almost a must for the Giants, who have a much tougher stretch at the end of the year.
9. Baltimore Ravens (3-3) - Same - They lost three tough games against quality opponents before their bye, and it doesn't get any easier for the Ravens, as they host the undefeated Broncos on Sunday.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) - Same - The Eagles' defense is the most opportunistic that Andy Reid has ever had with 19 forced turnovers so far this year. Offensively, though, they're still too reliant on the big play.
11. Arizona Cardinals (4-2) - Up 4 - The most unheralded part of the Cardinals season last year was their playmaking defense. That defense was missing through 4 games, but has come alive in the last 2 games. Eli Manning was completely confused all game last week as the Cardinals appear to be getting over their Super Bowl hangover.
12. Green Bay Packers (4-2) - Same - One of the few relative unknowns left. They've completely destroyed the weaker teams they've played and have lost tough games to Minnesota and Cincy. With Brett Favre coming into town for Favregeddon II this Sunday, there isn't a better time for the Pack to make a statement.
13. Dallas Cowboys (4-2) - Up 1 - Miles Austin has emerged as a true playmaker for a Cowboys offense that is top 10 in all major categories. Their strong win over Atlanta was the fifth straight win for the 'Boys coming off of a bye.
14. Atlanta Falcons (4-2) - Down 7 - It's not that they got dominated badly enough to be dropped 7 spots, it's that their best wins (Niners, Bears, Dolphins) are looking worse and worse every week. Michael Turner is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this year.
The Average Joes
15. Houston Texans (4-3) - Up 2 - Who is this player: Leads the NFL in passing yards, has a 104.4 passer rating and has two 4-TD games this season. Answer: Matt Schaub. Also, Houston's run defense has pulled the biggest 180 of the NFL season by allowing under 49 yards per game the past 4 weeks.
16. Miami Dolphins (2-4) - Up 2 - Yes, they choked. But they were the first team all season to challenge the Saints. One of the most underrated story lines of the season has been the comeback of Ricky Williams, who put up 80 yards and 3 TDs on just 9 carries on New Orleans.
17. New York Jets (4-3) - Up 2 - They lost Leon Washington for the year, but the Jets have become the NFL's best rushing team behind Thomas Jones and new weapon Shonn Greene. Calvin Pace had a career day with 7 tackles, 3 sacks and 2 FFs against the Raiders.
18. Chicago Bears (3-3) - Down 5 - Other than a Week 2 win over Pittsburgh, the Bears have had nothing to show for this season. Jay Cutler's 82.9 passer rating is the lowest of his career and Matt Forte had just 6 carries in an awful loss in Cincinnati.
The Nobodys
19. San Diego Chargers (3-3) - Up 1 - The Bolts' running game finally got going in a blowout win at Kansas City. Also, Defensive Coordinator finally turned up the blitzing, resulting in a breakout, 2-sack day for Shaun Phillips, who previously hadn't notched a single sack this season.
20. San Francisco 49ers (3-3) - Down 4 - The Shaun Hill love-fest appears to be over after an awful first half against Houston, but Niners fans are excited about the play of Alex Smith in the second half last week. He looked as good as ever in his so-far disappointing NFL career. Also, who told Vernon Davis to start playing up to his ability?
21. Seattle Seahawks (2-4) - Same - When the Seahawks allow more than 0 points this season, they're 0-4. With a road trip to Dallas this weekend, they're going to have to win in a shootout.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) - Same - Their next two games are against Tennessee and Kansas City, so it's very likely they'll be a 5-3 fraud by Week 9. Also, the NFL's 31st ranked pass defense could be without their best CB, Rasheen Mathis, for the near future.
The Forgettables
23. Buffalo Bills (3-4) - Up 1 - The offense is terrible. But luckily, the defense has picked up the slack. Rookie FS Jairus Byrd has been the rookie of the year so far, and had his second straight 2-INT day against the Panthers. The Bills scored all of their points off of turnovers on Sunday and have allowed just 25 total points over the last 3 weeks.
24. Carolina Panthers (2-4) - Down 1 - Jake Delhomme is on pace for 35 interceptions this season. Quarterbacks often get too much blame for losses, but Delhomme is by far the biggest reason for Carolina's struggles this year.
25. Detroit Lions (1-5) - Up 1 - Matthew Stafford is practicing again, but is anyone going to actually watch the Lions play the Rams this Sunday?
26. Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) - Down 1 - And... all the momentum is gone after getting destroyed by the Chargers. Matt Cassel had his worst game of the season and Larry Johnson is being asked to stay away from the team. A young team needs veterans and coaches to look up to, not have them bashing each other on Twitter. Johnson needs to go.
The Losers
27. Washington Redskins (2-5) - Same - The botched snap in the 4th quarter against the Eagles summed up the season in one play for the Redskins. The snap his the Right Guard. How on earth can a snap hit the Right Guard? The team has talent and ability, but is just the least clutch team of all time.
28. Oakland Raiders (2-5) - Same - 'Coach Tom Cable said he needed to make a quarterback change because JaMarcus Russell was "out of sorts" in a three-turnover performance. Russell's response: "Actually I wasn't."' JaMarcus Russell is living proof as to why the NFL needs a rookie cap. Russell simply does not care, and is making 10 million a year for his services.
29. Cleveland Browns (1-6) - Same - Derek Anderson does some things well, but he just isn't accurate in the slightest bit. He was 12-for-29 in Sunday's loss to Green Bay and is completing just under 44% of his passes on the season. The Browns know what they have in Anderson and they aren't winning many games this year. Just start Brady Quinn again and see whether or not they need to acquire a new QB in the off-season.
30. Tennessee Titans (0-6) - Same - Titans' owner Bud Adams is insisting Jeff Fisher start Vince Young this week against Jacksonville. While the main problem with Tennessee probably isn't QB Kerry Collins and I'm by no means a Vince Young fan, they might as well use this season to find out what they really have in Young.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) - Same - Even in London, Tampa has no shot against a team like New England. The Josh Johnson era may be coming to an end, as rookie Josh Freeman got his first action of the season and with a bye this week, Freeman would have two weeks to prepare for his first start.
32. St. Louis Rams (0-7) - Same - They've now lost 17 straight games. They get to play Detroit this week, and if they don't win, they may have to wait until mid-December when they play Tennessee to break this streak.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Week 6 Power Rankings
The Sidekicks took a step back this week with losses for Cincy, Baltimore and Philly, but nobody took a further step back then the Jets, who, after struggling for two weeks, finally broke down completely and lost to the Bills.
The NFL still looks like an hourglass six weeks in, so let's just get this show on the road.
The Big Boys
1. New Orleans Saints (5-0) - Same - Drew Brees was simply phenomenal against the NFL's top pass defense. New Orleans now averages 48 points per game against the NFC East this season.
2. Indianapolis Colts (6-0) - Up 1 - Coming off of a bye, they get to face St. Louis. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Peyton Manning has a good shot at notching seven straight 300-yard games this weekend.
3. Minnesota Vikings (6-0) - Up 2 - Adrian Peterson now leads the league in rushing, Brett Favre is the NFL's third ranked passer, Sidney Rice is on pace to put up nearly 1,100 yards and Jared Allen has 7.5 sacks. After last week's win over a solid Ravens team, I'm completely sold on the Vikings.
4. Denver Broncos (6-0) - Same - Kyle Orton now has a 100+ passer rating, Elvis Dumervil has reached double-digit sacks and Eddie Royal's return ability opens up a new element to an already strong team.
The Sidekicks
5. New England Patriots (4-2) - Up 4 - People are criticizing the Pats for running up the score in last weekend's 59-0 laugher. What is this, Pee Wee football? These are pros vs. pros. And after two series in the third quarter, it was pros vs. backups.
6. New York Giants (5-1) - Down 4 - Yeah, they got stomped by New Orleans. But there were times during that game, where you could only ask: "What could you possibly do against this?". Drew Brees was simply unbeatable last Sunday.
7. Atlanta Falcons (4-1) - Up 3 - Their defense is still giving up plenty of yards, but is allowing only 15 points per game. The reason: Third-best red-zone scoring percentage. Conclusion: Bend, don't break.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) - Down 2 - Houston showed that stopping Cedric Benson and airing it out on the NFL's 5th worst pass defense is how you beat the Bengals. Will upcoming opponents follow suit?
9. Baltimore Ravens (3-3) - Down 2 - Can you imagine a team more unlucky? They get some bogus calls in Foxboro, Carson Palmer turns into Randall Cunningham against them and Kicker Steven Hauschka misses a very makeable game-winner. Amazing to think that they now have the same record as the Jacksonville Jaguars.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) - Down 2 - For whatever reason, this team just decides, collectively, not to show up about twice a year. Donovan McNabb, the offensive line, the coaching staff and the linebackers simply didn't play adequate NFL football last week.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) - Up 1 - You just can't turn the ball over four times against Cleveland. If it had been anybody else, they'd be 3-3 right now.
12. Green Bay Packers (3-2) - Up 2 - They have a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense right now. If they had an offensive line and a consistent pass rush, they'd be a really scary team.
The Average Joes
13. Chicago Bears (3-2) - Same - Average offense, average defense, awful running game. Matt Forte was stuffed again last week in his worst game of the season.
14. Dallas Cowboys (3-2) - Up 1 - An offense that puts up yards, but can't always score faces a Falcons defense that gives up yards, but holds you to few points. Cowboys hoping that coming off a bye will give them the edge.
15. Arizona Cardinals (3-2) - Up 1 - We knew the Cards could throw. Now we saw a solid defensive performance for the first time this season. They allowed zero third-down conversions and just 14 rushing yards while holding Matt Hasselbeck to just 10-for-29 passing.
16. San Francisco 49ers (3-2) - Same - The bye week came at the perfect time. They desperately needed to get Frank Gore back, and the addition of Michael Crabtree to the offense gives the 28th-ranked pass offense a much-needed option.
17. Houston Texans (3-3) - Up 4 - Houston surprisingly went dink-and-dunk against the Bengals last week. If they can use that to complement their established vertical passing scheme, their lack of ground game may not be as big of an issue. Also, if they can stop the run like they have the past three weeks (45 yards per game), they could be a team that makes some noise.
Who are these guys?
18. Miami Dolphins (2-3) - Same - They'll be welcomed back from their bye by the New Orleans Saints. Miami needs to run the ball to be successful, so it's vital that their defense doesn't surrender a big, early lead.
19. New York Jets (3-3) - Down 8 - The NFL's biggest fraud in Week 3? Maybe. It's still a good team, but Mark Sanchez is really struggling. The Jets right now are averaging more yards on the ground than through the air. The penalties last week didn't help, either.
20. San Diego Chargers (2-3) - Same - Want to know what a bad team looks like with an elite QB? Look no further. Shaun Phillips and Shawne Merriman have combined for 0 sacks this season.
21. Seattle Seahawks (2-4) - Down 2 - When a team is as up-and-down as Seattle this year, you just have to conclude that they're a mediocre football team that can make noise, but not often or consistently enough to be taken seriously.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) - Same - Needing overtime to beat St. Louis is about as bad as losing outright. After looking pretty decent two weeks ago, they really need a bye after looking awful the past two.
The Forgettables
23. Carolina Panthers (2-3) - Same - The running game is back, as both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart went over the century mark. Unfortunately, Jake Delhomme's play this year is severely holding back a potentially powerful offense.
24. Buffalo Bills (2-4) - Up 3 - They've held shaky opposing QBs to passer ratings of 8.3 and 15.1 the last two weeks. Next up: Jake Delhomme.
25. Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) - Up 3 - After making noise against the Giants and taking the Cowboys to OT, they finally broke through with a win over the direction-less Redskins last week. Amazingly, none of the combined 20 points in the game were scored by either offenses. Thank you, Ryan Succop.
26. Detroit Lions (1-5) - Down 1 - The Lions were not preparing on having Drew Stanton under center this season. After last week, it's pretty clear that neither was Stanton. They have a bye to get the promising Matthew Stafford back healthy.
27. Washington Redskins (2-4) - Down 3 - Their defense is top-5 in points allowed, total defense and against the pass. Jason Campbell has an 84 passer rating and Clinton Portis is averaging more than four yards per carry. The problem? Awful leadership, a 22% Third-Down conversion percentage in their last three games, a bad offensive line and horrendous play in critical situations. This team is the exact opposite of clutch. Jim Zorn has his job secure for the season, but I would be astonished to see him back next year.
The Losers
28. Oakland Raiders (2-4) - Up 4 - The "emergence of Jamarcus Russell" featured a grand total of 2 completions for 6 yards. Lesson learned: Make sure you cover Oakland's TEs and RBs from now on. Yes, they beat a good team, but scoring 13 points is hardly a performance worthy of playoff guarantees.
29. Cleveland Browns (1-5) - Same - Worst offensive play of the season: Joshua Cribbs lines up in the gun, fakes the handoff, gets pressured and throws an ugly pass off of his back foot right into the arms of Troy Polamalu... in Pittsburgh's red zone. You know a team has a desperate QB situation when they run the wildcat SEVEN(!!!) plays in a row.
30. Tennessee Titans (0-6) - Down 4 - Tennessee's combined passing stats at New England: 2-for-14, -7 yards, 2 interceptions. They lost to the Pats by the same margin as Charleston Southern lost to Florida... and that game had a 73-point spread. Forget Tampa's play against the Giants earlier this season, this one's not getting topped this year.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6) - Down 1 - Josh Johnson's stats don't show it, but the Bucs have been more competitive since he's been the starter. DE Jimmy Wilkerson is also quietly having a nice year for them. They're pretty bad, but at least they're young and rebuilding.
32. St. Louis Rams (0-6) - Down 1 - The last remaining team that isn't scoring 10 points per game. How is it possible in the Free Agency era of the NFL, that one team can average 38 points per game and another can average 9? Bring on the Colts!
The NFL still looks like an hourglass six weeks in, so let's just get this show on the road.
The Big Boys
1. New Orleans Saints (5-0) - Same - Drew Brees was simply phenomenal against the NFL's top pass defense. New Orleans now averages 48 points per game against the NFC East this season.
2. Indianapolis Colts (6-0) - Up 1 - Coming off of a bye, they get to face St. Louis. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Peyton Manning has a good shot at notching seven straight 300-yard games this weekend.
3. Minnesota Vikings (6-0) - Up 2 - Adrian Peterson now leads the league in rushing, Brett Favre is the NFL's third ranked passer, Sidney Rice is on pace to put up nearly 1,100 yards and Jared Allen has 7.5 sacks. After last week's win over a solid Ravens team, I'm completely sold on the Vikings.
4. Denver Broncos (6-0) - Same - Kyle Orton now has a 100+ passer rating, Elvis Dumervil has reached double-digit sacks and Eddie Royal's return ability opens up a new element to an already strong team.
The Sidekicks
5. New England Patriots (4-2) - Up 4 - People are criticizing the Pats for running up the score in last weekend's 59-0 laugher. What is this, Pee Wee football? These are pros vs. pros. And after two series in the third quarter, it was pros vs. backups.
6. New York Giants (5-1) - Down 4 - Yeah, they got stomped by New Orleans. But there were times during that game, where you could only ask: "What could you possibly do against this?". Drew Brees was simply unbeatable last Sunday.
7. Atlanta Falcons (4-1) - Up 3 - Their defense is still giving up plenty of yards, but is allowing only 15 points per game. The reason: Third-best red-zone scoring percentage. Conclusion: Bend, don't break.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) - Down 2 - Houston showed that stopping Cedric Benson and airing it out on the NFL's 5th worst pass defense is how you beat the Bengals. Will upcoming opponents follow suit?
9. Baltimore Ravens (3-3) - Down 2 - Can you imagine a team more unlucky? They get some bogus calls in Foxboro, Carson Palmer turns into Randall Cunningham against them and Kicker Steven Hauschka misses a very makeable game-winner. Amazing to think that they now have the same record as the Jacksonville Jaguars.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) - Down 2 - For whatever reason, this team just decides, collectively, not to show up about twice a year. Donovan McNabb, the offensive line, the coaching staff and the linebackers simply didn't play adequate NFL football last week.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) - Up 1 - You just can't turn the ball over four times against Cleveland. If it had been anybody else, they'd be 3-3 right now.
12. Green Bay Packers (3-2) - Up 2 - They have a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense right now. If they had an offensive line and a consistent pass rush, they'd be a really scary team.
The Average Joes
13. Chicago Bears (3-2) - Same - Average offense, average defense, awful running game. Matt Forte was stuffed again last week in his worst game of the season.
14. Dallas Cowboys (3-2) - Up 1 - An offense that puts up yards, but can't always score faces a Falcons defense that gives up yards, but holds you to few points. Cowboys hoping that coming off a bye will give them the edge.
15. Arizona Cardinals (3-2) - Up 1 - We knew the Cards could throw. Now we saw a solid defensive performance for the first time this season. They allowed zero third-down conversions and just 14 rushing yards while holding Matt Hasselbeck to just 10-for-29 passing.
16. San Francisco 49ers (3-2) - Same - The bye week came at the perfect time. They desperately needed to get Frank Gore back, and the addition of Michael Crabtree to the offense gives the 28th-ranked pass offense a much-needed option.
17. Houston Texans (3-3) - Up 4 - Houston surprisingly went dink-and-dunk against the Bengals last week. If they can use that to complement their established vertical passing scheme, their lack of ground game may not be as big of an issue. Also, if they can stop the run like they have the past three weeks (45 yards per game), they could be a team that makes some noise.
Who are these guys?
18. Miami Dolphins (2-3) - Same - They'll be welcomed back from their bye by the New Orleans Saints. Miami needs to run the ball to be successful, so it's vital that their defense doesn't surrender a big, early lead.
19. New York Jets (3-3) - Down 8 - The NFL's biggest fraud in Week 3? Maybe. It's still a good team, but Mark Sanchez is really struggling. The Jets right now are averaging more yards on the ground than through the air. The penalties last week didn't help, either.
20. San Diego Chargers (2-3) - Same - Want to know what a bad team looks like with an elite QB? Look no further. Shaun Phillips and Shawne Merriman have combined for 0 sacks this season.
21. Seattle Seahawks (2-4) - Down 2 - When a team is as up-and-down as Seattle this year, you just have to conclude that they're a mediocre football team that can make noise, but not often or consistently enough to be taken seriously.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) - Same - Needing overtime to beat St. Louis is about as bad as losing outright. After looking pretty decent two weeks ago, they really need a bye after looking awful the past two.
The Forgettables
23. Carolina Panthers (2-3) - Same - The running game is back, as both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart went over the century mark. Unfortunately, Jake Delhomme's play this year is severely holding back a potentially powerful offense.
24. Buffalo Bills (2-4) - Up 3 - They've held shaky opposing QBs to passer ratings of 8.3 and 15.1 the last two weeks. Next up: Jake Delhomme.
25. Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) - Up 3 - After making noise against the Giants and taking the Cowboys to OT, they finally broke through with a win over the direction-less Redskins last week. Amazingly, none of the combined 20 points in the game were scored by either offenses. Thank you, Ryan Succop.
26. Detroit Lions (1-5) - Down 1 - The Lions were not preparing on having Drew Stanton under center this season. After last week, it's pretty clear that neither was Stanton. They have a bye to get the promising Matthew Stafford back healthy.
27. Washington Redskins (2-4) - Down 3 - Their defense is top-5 in points allowed, total defense and against the pass. Jason Campbell has an 84 passer rating and Clinton Portis is averaging more than four yards per carry. The problem? Awful leadership, a 22% Third-Down conversion percentage in their last three games, a bad offensive line and horrendous play in critical situations. This team is the exact opposite of clutch. Jim Zorn has his job secure for the season, but I would be astonished to see him back next year.
The Losers
28. Oakland Raiders (2-4) - Up 4 - The "emergence of Jamarcus Russell" featured a grand total of 2 completions for 6 yards. Lesson learned: Make sure you cover Oakland's TEs and RBs from now on. Yes, they beat a good team, but scoring 13 points is hardly a performance worthy of playoff guarantees.
29. Cleveland Browns (1-5) - Same - Worst offensive play of the season: Joshua Cribbs lines up in the gun, fakes the handoff, gets pressured and throws an ugly pass off of his back foot right into the arms of Troy Polamalu... in Pittsburgh's red zone. You know a team has a desperate QB situation when they run the wildcat SEVEN(!!!) plays in a row.
30. Tennessee Titans (0-6) - Down 4 - Tennessee's combined passing stats at New England: 2-for-14, -7 yards, 2 interceptions. They lost to the Pats by the same margin as Charleston Southern lost to Florida... and that game had a 73-point spread. Forget Tampa's play against the Giants earlier this season, this one's not getting topped this year.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-6) - Down 1 - Josh Johnson's stats don't show it, but the Bucs have been more competitive since he's been the starter. DE Jimmy Wilkerson is also quietly having a nice year for them. They're pretty bad, but at least they're young and rebuilding.
32. St. Louis Rams (0-6) - Down 1 - The last remaining team that isn't scoring 10 points per game. How is it possible in the Free Agency era of the NFL, that one team can average 38 points per game and another can average 9? Bring on the Colts!
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Week 5 Power Rankings
The elite group at the top got more exclusive this week, as the Patriots and Ravens both lost again this week.
Meanwhile, we're really starting to see a divide between the good teams and the average teams in the NFL, with the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers being perhaps the only two on the fence.
The bottom, however, is growing and growing every week. Not only do the Losers have a new team in their group (Buffalo), but the Forgettables (Carolina, Washington, Detroit, Tennessee) don't appear good enough to beat anyone better than them either at this point.
Let's start this mess.
The Big Boys
1. New Orleans Saints (4-0) - Same - We'll get plenty of answers when Eli and the Giants roll into town on Sunday.
2. New York Giants (5-0) - Same - Toughness clearly runs in the Manning family, and it helps when you're beating a team so easily that you can take Eli out in the first half.
3. Indianapolis Colts (5-0) - Same - Peyton Manning has a 73.5 completion percentage, and, after a bye this week, will look to continue arguably his best season so far as a pro. The Colts' schedule this year looks pitifully easy.
4. Denver Broncos (5-0) - Up 1 - I'm a believer. The reason: coaching. Josh McDaniels is turning Kyle Orton into a very good NFL QB, while Mike Nolan is reminding people that he's a great Defensive Coordinator. For people blaming Denver for a weak schedule: How do explain wins over Cincy, Dallas and the Pats? And why haven't Pittsburgh and Atlanta looked as impressive against their relatively weak opponents? Denver is a good team that's beating teams that they're better than.
5. Minnesota Vikings (5-0) - Down 1 - I'm still not 100% sold. They're still not really special at anything, haven't faced a legitimate contender yet, haven't dominated and allowed over 400 yards to the Rams last weekend. They may be a great team, but they'll have to prove it against Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the next two weeks.
The Sidekicks
6. Cincinnati Bengals (4-1) - Up 7 - People are comparing them to last year's Cardinals. But they remind me more of last year's Steelers. They're ugly, don't blow anybody out, play good defense, win close games and have a QB who looks sloppy through most of the game, but makes huge plays in the fourth quarter when his team needs him to.
7. Baltimore Ravens (3-2) - Same - They're good, but the schedule could be a real issue. They play Minnesota, Denver, Cincy, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh in the next 7 weeks.
8. Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) - Up 2 - They've thoroughly dominated everyone they were supposed to, but don't have any quality wins yet. Still, the offense is potent and the defense is making a lot of plays.
9. New England Patriots (3-2) - Down 3 - They've played some quality defenses so far, but you'd still expect a Tom Brady-led offense to be better than 18th in scoring.
10. Atlanta Falcons (3-1) - Up 6 - They looked so-so until their bye, then completely came alive on a cross-nation trip to SanFran. Roddy White lit up a quality CB in Nate Clements.
11. New York Jets (3-2) - Down 3 - Did we jump the gun on them? Mark Sanchez has been up and down, but the real question mark is the run defense, which has allowed 431 yards in the past three games against good run offenses.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) - Down 1 - Getting Troy Polamalu back will light a fire under a defense that has been solid, but unspectacular. The loss of Aaron Smith will hurt, but Travis Kirschke is a reliable backup, while Ziggy Hood was drafted specifically to replace Smith down the line.
13. Chicago Bears (3-1) - Down 1 - The Bears and the Falcons are two of the last remaining unknowns so far. They'll face off Sunday Night in Atlanta. Can Matt Forte build on his performance before the bye against a weak Falcons run defense?
The Average Joes
14. Green Bay Packers (2-2) - Same - A seemingly very average team with a lot of potential. They'll get to build their record up to 4-2 against Detroit and Cleveland before Farvageddon II, return to Lambeau.
15. Dallas Cowboys (3-2) - Same - They needed OT to beat Kansas City. Can you believe this team has the #1 offense in the NFL?
16. San Francisco 49ers (3-2) - Down 7 - Wow, what a difference one week makes. I was ready to buy into this team, then they lose by 35 at home to the Falcons? Luckily, they have a bye week to get Frank Gore healthy and Michael Crabtree integrated.
17. Arizona Cardinals (2-2) - Up 3 - Luckily, Houston's defense is even worse than theirs. The running game is averaging 56 yards per game, but luckily, Kurt Warner's still keeping them afloat.
Who are these guys?
18. Miami Dolphins (2-3) - Up 3 - Tons of coaches have copied Bill Walsh's West Coast Offense, but none have been able to truely master it like he did. So far, nobody runs the Wildcat even close to as well as Ronnie Brown's Dolphins.
19. Seattle Seahawks (2-3) - Up 3 - They completed their second shutout of the season against what was a top 10 Jaguars offense coming in. I don't know if this is a good team, but they're definitely capable of upsetting teams when they're on.
20. San Diego Chargers (2-2) - Down 1 - Unable to run the ball, their offense has become predictable. That may not be a great matchup against an aggressive Broncos defense this Sunday.
21. Houston Texans (2-3) - Down 3 - Well, they can thrown the ball just fine. Unfortunately, every other aspect of the team is struggling. Their running game isn't even averaging 3 yards per carry.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) - Down 5 - I was ready to buy into them, but seriously, their pass rush is just awful. They have one DE with a sack (Reggie Heyward), and he's on Injured Reserve now.
The Forgettables
23. Carolina Panthers (1-3) - Up 2 - Well, they finally got a much-needed win against the disappointing Redskins. Unfortunately, they still rank in the bottom ten in every major offensive statistical category and, as expected, can't stop the run.
24. Washington Redskins (2-3) - Down 1 - They'll play their NFL-record sixth straight game against a winless opponent on Sunday, but the schedule after that gets simply brutal. Washington has one last week to get themselves together.
25. Detroit Lions (1-4) - Down 1 - Dante Culpepper was 23-for-27 in tough loss to Pittsburgh. Scott Linehan is doing a nice job with this offense, but the defense really needs to step it up (32.4 ppg allowed).
26. Tennessee Titans (0-5) - Same - Albert Haynesworth's loss isn't being felt against the run, but boy is his pass rush and double team-garnering ability missing. The Titans are the same as last year on offense, but the defense was special last year. This year it's giving up 27.8 points per game.
The Losers
27. Buffalo Bills (1-4) - Same - Perhaps the biggest blunder of the off-season was Buffalo's total neglect of their Offensive Line in Free Agency.
28. Kansas City Chiefs (0-5) - Up 1 - At least they're somewhat competetive. They hung with Baltimore in the opener, made a late push against the Giants and took the Cowboys to overtime. But dammit, why did they have to lose to the Raiders???
29. Cleveland Browns (1-4) - Up 1 - 2-for-17 = Win apparently in this year's bottom-heavy NFL. ESPN's NFL Blitz highlights of the game were back-and-forth punts from Dave Zastudil and Brian Moorman. Cleveland can thank Buffalo Punt Returner Roscoe Parrish for the win.
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5) - Up 1 - They put up yards on Philadelphia and Josh Johnson has some ability. Still, this is a young rebuilding team with a tough schedule. They would be my best bet to go winless this year.
31. St. Louis Rams (0-5) - Up 1 - They put up 400 yards against the Vikings, are getting Marc Bulger back this week and have two winnable games in the next three weeks. It's now or never for the Rams.
32. Oakland Raiders (1-4) - Down 4 - They're averaging less than 10 points and 200 yards per game on offense. They've also lost their last three games by a combined score of 96 to 13.
Meanwhile, we're really starting to see a divide between the good teams and the average teams in the NFL, with the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers being perhaps the only two on the fence.
The bottom, however, is growing and growing every week. Not only do the Losers have a new team in their group (Buffalo), but the Forgettables (Carolina, Washington, Detroit, Tennessee) don't appear good enough to beat anyone better than them either at this point.
Let's start this mess.
The Big Boys
1. New Orleans Saints (4-0) - Same - We'll get plenty of answers when Eli and the Giants roll into town on Sunday.
2. New York Giants (5-0) - Same - Toughness clearly runs in the Manning family, and it helps when you're beating a team so easily that you can take Eli out in the first half.
3. Indianapolis Colts (5-0) - Same - Peyton Manning has a 73.5 completion percentage, and, after a bye this week, will look to continue arguably his best season so far as a pro. The Colts' schedule this year looks pitifully easy.
4. Denver Broncos (5-0) - Up 1 - I'm a believer. The reason: coaching. Josh McDaniels is turning Kyle Orton into a very good NFL QB, while Mike Nolan is reminding people that he's a great Defensive Coordinator. For people blaming Denver for a weak schedule: How do explain wins over Cincy, Dallas and the Pats? And why haven't Pittsburgh and Atlanta looked as impressive against their relatively weak opponents? Denver is a good team that's beating teams that they're better than.
5. Minnesota Vikings (5-0) - Down 1 - I'm still not 100% sold. They're still not really special at anything, haven't faced a legitimate contender yet, haven't dominated and allowed over 400 yards to the Rams last weekend. They may be a great team, but they'll have to prove it against Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the next two weeks.
The Sidekicks
6. Cincinnati Bengals (4-1) - Up 7 - People are comparing them to last year's Cardinals. But they remind me more of last year's Steelers. They're ugly, don't blow anybody out, play good defense, win close games and have a QB who looks sloppy through most of the game, but makes huge plays in the fourth quarter when his team needs him to.
7. Baltimore Ravens (3-2) - Same - They're good, but the schedule could be a real issue. They play Minnesota, Denver, Cincy, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh in the next 7 weeks.
8. Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) - Up 2 - They've thoroughly dominated everyone they were supposed to, but don't have any quality wins yet. Still, the offense is potent and the defense is making a lot of plays.
9. New England Patriots (3-2) - Down 3 - They've played some quality defenses so far, but you'd still expect a Tom Brady-led offense to be better than 18th in scoring.
10. Atlanta Falcons (3-1) - Up 6 - They looked so-so until their bye, then completely came alive on a cross-nation trip to SanFran. Roddy White lit up a quality CB in Nate Clements.
11. New York Jets (3-2) - Down 3 - Did we jump the gun on them? Mark Sanchez has been up and down, but the real question mark is the run defense, which has allowed 431 yards in the past three games against good run offenses.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) - Down 1 - Getting Troy Polamalu back will light a fire under a defense that has been solid, but unspectacular. The loss of Aaron Smith will hurt, but Travis Kirschke is a reliable backup, while Ziggy Hood was drafted specifically to replace Smith down the line.
13. Chicago Bears (3-1) - Down 1 - The Bears and the Falcons are two of the last remaining unknowns so far. They'll face off Sunday Night in Atlanta. Can Matt Forte build on his performance before the bye against a weak Falcons run defense?
The Average Joes
14. Green Bay Packers (2-2) - Same - A seemingly very average team with a lot of potential. They'll get to build their record up to 4-2 against Detroit and Cleveland before Farvageddon II, return to Lambeau.
15. Dallas Cowboys (3-2) - Same - They needed OT to beat Kansas City. Can you believe this team has the #1 offense in the NFL?
16. San Francisco 49ers (3-2) - Down 7 - Wow, what a difference one week makes. I was ready to buy into this team, then they lose by 35 at home to the Falcons? Luckily, they have a bye week to get Frank Gore healthy and Michael Crabtree integrated.
17. Arizona Cardinals (2-2) - Up 3 - Luckily, Houston's defense is even worse than theirs. The running game is averaging 56 yards per game, but luckily, Kurt Warner's still keeping them afloat.
Who are these guys?
18. Miami Dolphins (2-3) - Up 3 - Tons of coaches have copied Bill Walsh's West Coast Offense, but none have been able to truely master it like he did. So far, nobody runs the Wildcat even close to as well as Ronnie Brown's Dolphins.
19. Seattle Seahawks (2-3) - Up 3 - They completed their second shutout of the season against what was a top 10 Jaguars offense coming in. I don't know if this is a good team, but they're definitely capable of upsetting teams when they're on.
20. San Diego Chargers (2-2) - Down 1 - Unable to run the ball, their offense has become predictable. That may not be a great matchup against an aggressive Broncos defense this Sunday.
21. Houston Texans (2-3) - Down 3 - Well, they can thrown the ball just fine. Unfortunately, every other aspect of the team is struggling. Their running game isn't even averaging 3 yards per carry.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) - Down 5 - I was ready to buy into them, but seriously, their pass rush is just awful. They have one DE with a sack (Reggie Heyward), and he's on Injured Reserve now.
The Forgettables
23. Carolina Panthers (1-3) - Up 2 - Well, they finally got a much-needed win against the disappointing Redskins. Unfortunately, they still rank in the bottom ten in every major offensive statistical category and, as expected, can't stop the run.
24. Washington Redskins (2-3) - Down 1 - They'll play their NFL-record sixth straight game against a winless opponent on Sunday, but the schedule after that gets simply brutal. Washington has one last week to get themselves together.
25. Detroit Lions (1-4) - Down 1 - Dante Culpepper was 23-for-27 in tough loss to Pittsburgh. Scott Linehan is doing a nice job with this offense, but the defense really needs to step it up (32.4 ppg allowed).
26. Tennessee Titans (0-5) - Same - Albert Haynesworth's loss isn't being felt against the run, but boy is his pass rush and double team-garnering ability missing. The Titans are the same as last year on offense, but the defense was special last year. This year it's giving up 27.8 points per game.
The Losers
27. Buffalo Bills (1-4) - Same - Perhaps the biggest blunder of the off-season was Buffalo's total neglect of their Offensive Line in Free Agency.
28. Kansas City Chiefs (0-5) - Up 1 - At least they're somewhat competetive. They hung with Baltimore in the opener, made a late push against the Giants and took the Cowboys to overtime. But dammit, why did they have to lose to the Raiders???
29. Cleveland Browns (1-4) - Up 1 - 2-for-17 = Win apparently in this year's bottom-heavy NFL. ESPN's NFL Blitz highlights of the game were back-and-forth punts from Dave Zastudil and Brian Moorman. Cleveland can thank Buffalo Punt Returner Roscoe Parrish for the win.
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5) - Up 1 - They put up yards on Philadelphia and Josh Johnson has some ability. Still, this is a young rebuilding team with a tough schedule. They would be my best bet to go winless this year.
31. St. Louis Rams (0-5) - Up 1 - They put up 400 yards against the Vikings, are getting Marc Bulger back this week and have two winnable games in the next three weeks. It's now or never for the Rams.
32. Oakland Raiders (1-4) - Down 4 - They're averaging less than 10 points and 200 yards per game on offense. They've also lost their last three games by a combined score of 96 to 13.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Week 4 Power Rankings
In Week 4, more teams emerged as legitimate contenders. New England beat Baltimore, Denver didn't miss a beat despite finally playing a solid opponent and I'm starting to think I was too harsh on Indianapolis.
Also, more teams emerged as legitimate dogs. Buffalo got blown out by a Chad Pennington-less Dolphins squad, Tennessee rolled over and got stomped by Jacksonville and Washington once again struggled against a weak opponent.
So without further ado, bring on the rankings!
The Big Boys
1. New Orleans Saints (4-0) (Up 2) - Question: What do you get when you give Drew Brees the NFL's 2nd best rushing attack and a top 10 defense? Answer: The #1 team in the NFL.
2. New York Giants (4-0) (Down 1) - They're absolutely dominating opponents, but won't see a true test until Week 6 at New Orleans. Their #1 pass defense should obliterate Oakland this Sunday.
3. Indianapolis Colts (4-0) (Up 3) - I wasn't sold on Indy after struggling against Jacksonville and Miami, but those teams look a little more formidable now. Peyton Manning is on pace to throw for 5283 yards.
4. Minnesota Vikings (4-0) (Same) - The Vikings passing offense is only 21st in the NFL, but Brett Favre is making the plays that previous Vikings QBs couldn't. I still can't believe I picked Green Bay to beat them on Monday with Jared Allen lining up against a Guard playing out of position and a backup Left Tackle.
5. Denver Broncos (4-0) (Up 4) - They finally beat a solid opponent and have a defense that ranks in the top 5 in points allowed, yards allowed, passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, sacks and interceptions.
6. New England Patriots (3-1) (Up 6) - They appear to be back on track after a questionable start, Tom Brady is getting better each game and the defense appears to be much improved from the past two seasons. There just aren't any real glaring holes on the Patriots.
7. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) (Down 5) - They're still a completely legitimate team and will probably be higher in these rankings by year's end. Plus, if a couple of questionable calls had gone the other way against New England, they'd still be undefeated.
The Sidekicks
8. New York Jets (3-1) (Down 3) - I still love Rex Ryan and I still love the Jets' defense, but coming into this year, the big knock on this team was a rookie starting QB and a frightening lack of gamebreaking weapons on offense. Against New Orleans, those issues were very apparent.
9. San Francisco 49ers (3-1) (Same) - The defense has been exceptional ever since Mike Singletary took over midway through last season. Last year he improved the defense by 10 points per game and this year they're giving up the second lowest total in the NFL (13.2 ppg)
10. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) (Same) - Andy Reid is 10-0 in games coming off of a bye. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that record improves to 11-0 after hosting Tampa Bay this coming Sunday.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) (Up 5) - How about Chris Kemoeatu and that O-Line showing up against The Bolts? They helped Rashard Mendenhall run for 165 yards in his first full game as a starter. Still, they have to close out games better. Last year that was their biggest strength. This year it's becoming a legitimate concern.
12. Chicago Bears (3-1) (Up 1) - No glaring weaknesses and a surprisingly improved Defensive Line have led the Bears to three straight wins. Matt Forte finally got it going last week, albeit, against the Lions.
13. Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) (Down 5) - Carson Palmer had to scramble for a first down on 4th and 11 to avoid a tie against a team that had scored one TD in 9 games. Could this franchise be any less consistent?
The Average Joes
14. Green Bay Packers (2-2) (Same) - They're putting up points on offense and making plays on defense, but they'll struggle to find consistency all season if their Offensive Line doesn't improve.
15. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) (Down 4) - They clearly have the talent to beat teams inferior to them, but lack the coaching and leadership to take down the better teams in the league. Could Tony Romo be any less clutch?
16. Atlanta Falcons (2-1) (Down 1) - Coming off of three unimpressive performances, they'll look to rebound when they travel cross country to San Francisco this Sunday.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) (Up 5) - What a difference a healthy Offensive Line makes. David Garrard is very quietly leading a top 10 offense, while players with hyphenated names are making plays all over the field for them. Unfortunately, they still can't get pressure on opposing QBs.
Who are these guys?
18. Houston Texans (2-2) (Up 2) - Their inability to run the ball may unfortunately hold them back from breaking out this season, but their upcoming contest at Arizona will be a fun one to watch.
19. San Diego Chargers (2-2) (Down 2) - The problem here is in the trenches. The Offensive Line without Nick Hardwick has been awful, as the Chargers are averaging just 2.7 YPC. The Defensive Line without departed Igor Olshansky and injured Jamal Williams are giving up over 150 yards per game on the ground. Philip Rivers can't do it all himself.
20. Arizona Cardinals (1-2) (Down 2) - The NFL's 30th ranked pass defense gets to face Andre Johnson this week. Fantasy nerds are drooling all over their mothers' basements.
21. Miami Dolphins (1-3) (Up 7) - I was too harsh on Miami, and no, it isn't because they blew out the Bills. It's because they have the NFL's best rushing attack and are stopping it just as well. When you control the ground game and time of possession, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.
22. Seattle Seahawks (1-3) ( Down 3) - They're mediocre on offense, they're mediocre on defense, they've lost three straight and got killed by Indianapolis last week.
The Forgettables
23. Washington Redskins (2-2) (Up 2) - If you're the Giants, you make bad NFL teams look like Division III Liberal Arts Colleges. If you're the Redskins, you would even play down to the ability of a Division III Liberal Arts College. They have two more warm-up games to wake up before facing a brutal end stretch, starting Week 7 against Philadelphia.
24. Detroit Lions (1-3) (Same) - They're improved and Matthew Stafford is looking better each week, but their defense is still allowing 33.5 points per game. Gunther Cunningham's defenses haven't been good since he had Derrick Thomas in the 1990s.
25. Carolina Panthers (0-3) (Up 1) - They're losing games by an average of 29-12.3. Chances are they'll do better against the struggling Redskins.
26. Tennessee Titans (0-4) (Down 5) - Isn't it funny that Kerry Collins suddenly isn't a "game manager" anymore now that the defense doesn't have Albert Haynesworth? Can we finally conclude that "game manager" = mediocre QB with an elite defense. QBs get too much credit in Tennessee.
27. Buffalo Bills (1-3) (Down 4) - Wow. How bad have they looked in back-to-back games against New Orleans and Miami? It appears that if you have an elite running game, you'll have no problem beating the Bills
The Losers
28. Oakland Raiders (1-3) (Down 1) - They got completely shut down in Houston by one of the NFL's worst defenses. Jamarcus Russell's 48.5 QB rating against the Texans actually raised his season rating by 2.6 points.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (0-4) (Same) - They actually made a late push against the Giants. Too bad the Giants' QB at that point was David Carr.
30. Cleveland Browns (0-4) (Up 2) - They doubled their TD total of the previous 9 weeks against the Bengals, and scored just 20 points. A loss at Buffalo on Sunday would give them an 11-game losing streak, tying a franchise record set in 1975.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) (Down 1) - At least Aqib Talib is playing well.
32. St. Louis Rams (0-4) (Down 1) - They've lost 14 straight and are scoring 6 points per game this season. Can anyone remember when the bottom of the NFL was as awful and helpless as the past two seasons?
Also, more teams emerged as legitimate dogs. Buffalo got blown out by a Chad Pennington-less Dolphins squad, Tennessee rolled over and got stomped by Jacksonville and Washington once again struggled against a weak opponent.
So without further ado, bring on the rankings!
The Big Boys
1. New Orleans Saints (4-0) (Up 2) - Question: What do you get when you give Drew Brees the NFL's 2nd best rushing attack and a top 10 defense? Answer: The #1 team in the NFL.
2. New York Giants (4-0) (Down 1) - They're absolutely dominating opponents, but won't see a true test until Week 6 at New Orleans. Their #1 pass defense should obliterate Oakland this Sunday.
3. Indianapolis Colts (4-0) (Up 3) - I wasn't sold on Indy after struggling against Jacksonville and Miami, but those teams look a little more formidable now. Peyton Manning is on pace to throw for 5283 yards.
4. Minnesota Vikings (4-0) (Same) - The Vikings passing offense is only 21st in the NFL, but Brett Favre is making the plays that previous Vikings QBs couldn't. I still can't believe I picked Green Bay to beat them on Monday with Jared Allen lining up against a Guard playing out of position and a backup Left Tackle.
5. Denver Broncos (4-0) (Up 4) - They finally beat a solid opponent and have a defense that ranks in the top 5 in points allowed, yards allowed, passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, sacks and interceptions.
6. New England Patriots (3-1) (Up 6) - They appear to be back on track after a questionable start, Tom Brady is getting better each game and the defense appears to be much improved from the past two seasons. There just aren't any real glaring holes on the Patriots.
7. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) (Down 5) - They're still a completely legitimate team and will probably be higher in these rankings by year's end. Plus, if a couple of questionable calls had gone the other way against New England, they'd still be undefeated.
The Sidekicks
8. New York Jets (3-1) (Down 3) - I still love Rex Ryan and I still love the Jets' defense, but coming into this year, the big knock on this team was a rookie starting QB and a frightening lack of gamebreaking weapons on offense. Against New Orleans, those issues were very apparent.
9. San Francisco 49ers (3-1) (Same) - The defense has been exceptional ever since Mike Singletary took over midway through last season. Last year he improved the defense by 10 points per game and this year they're giving up the second lowest total in the NFL (13.2 ppg)
10. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) (Same) - Andy Reid is 10-0 in games coming off of a bye. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that record improves to 11-0 after hosting Tampa Bay this coming Sunday.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) (Up 5) - How about Chris Kemoeatu and that O-Line showing up against The Bolts? They helped Rashard Mendenhall run for 165 yards in his first full game as a starter. Still, they have to close out games better. Last year that was their biggest strength. This year it's becoming a legitimate concern.
12. Chicago Bears (3-1) (Up 1) - No glaring weaknesses and a surprisingly improved Defensive Line have led the Bears to three straight wins. Matt Forte finally got it going last week, albeit, against the Lions.
13. Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) (Down 5) - Carson Palmer had to scramble for a first down on 4th and 11 to avoid a tie against a team that had scored one TD in 9 games. Could this franchise be any less consistent?
The Average Joes
14. Green Bay Packers (2-2) (Same) - They're putting up points on offense and making plays on defense, but they'll struggle to find consistency all season if their Offensive Line doesn't improve.
15. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) (Down 4) - They clearly have the talent to beat teams inferior to them, but lack the coaching and leadership to take down the better teams in the league. Could Tony Romo be any less clutch?
16. Atlanta Falcons (2-1) (Down 1) - Coming off of three unimpressive performances, they'll look to rebound when they travel cross country to San Francisco this Sunday.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) (Up 5) - What a difference a healthy Offensive Line makes. David Garrard is very quietly leading a top 10 offense, while players with hyphenated names are making plays all over the field for them. Unfortunately, they still can't get pressure on opposing QBs.
Who are these guys?
18. Houston Texans (2-2) (Up 2) - Their inability to run the ball may unfortunately hold them back from breaking out this season, but their upcoming contest at Arizona will be a fun one to watch.
19. San Diego Chargers (2-2) (Down 2) - The problem here is in the trenches. The Offensive Line without Nick Hardwick has been awful, as the Chargers are averaging just 2.7 YPC. The Defensive Line without departed Igor Olshansky and injured Jamal Williams are giving up over 150 yards per game on the ground. Philip Rivers can't do it all himself.
20. Arizona Cardinals (1-2) (Down 2) - The NFL's 30th ranked pass defense gets to face Andre Johnson this week. Fantasy nerds are drooling all over their mothers' basements.
21. Miami Dolphins (1-3) (Up 7) - I was too harsh on Miami, and no, it isn't because they blew out the Bills. It's because they have the NFL's best rushing attack and are stopping it just as well. When you control the ground game and time of possession, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.
22. Seattle Seahawks (1-3) ( Down 3) - They're mediocre on offense, they're mediocre on defense, they've lost three straight and got killed by Indianapolis last week.
The Forgettables
23. Washington Redskins (2-2) (Up 2) - If you're the Giants, you make bad NFL teams look like Division III Liberal Arts Colleges. If you're the Redskins, you would even play down to the ability of a Division III Liberal Arts College. They have two more warm-up games to wake up before facing a brutal end stretch, starting Week 7 against Philadelphia.
24. Detroit Lions (1-3) (Same) - They're improved and Matthew Stafford is looking better each week, but their defense is still allowing 33.5 points per game. Gunther Cunningham's defenses haven't been good since he had Derrick Thomas in the 1990s.
25. Carolina Panthers (0-3) (Up 1) - They're losing games by an average of 29-12.3. Chances are they'll do better against the struggling Redskins.
26. Tennessee Titans (0-4) (Down 5) - Isn't it funny that Kerry Collins suddenly isn't a "game manager" anymore now that the defense doesn't have Albert Haynesworth? Can we finally conclude that "game manager" = mediocre QB with an elite defense. QBs get too much credit in Tennessee.
27. Buffalo Bills (1-3) (Down 4) - Wow. How bad have they looked in back-to-back games against New Orleans and Miami? It appears that if you have an elite running game, you'll have no problem beating the Bills
The Losers
28. Oakland Raiders (1-3) (Down 1) - They got completely shut down in Houston by one of the NFL's worst defenses. Jamarcus Russell's 48.5 QB rating against the Texans actually raised his season rating by 2.6 points.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (0-4) (Same) - They actually made a late push against the Giants. Too bad the Giants' QB at that point was David Carr.
30. Cleveland Browns (0-4) (Up 2) - They doubled their TD total of the previous 9 weeks against the Bengals, and scored just 20 points. A loss at Buffalo on Sunday would give them an 11-game losing streak, tying a franchise record set in 1975.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) (Down 1) - At least Aqib Talib is playing well.
32. St. Louis Rams (0-4) (Down 1) - They've lost 14 straight and are scoring 6 points per game this season. Can anyone remember when the bottom of the NFL was as awful and helpless as the past two seasons?
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
First Power Rankings
Week 3 is important, because we can start to detect trends in the NFL. One game can be an anomaly, two can be luck, three is a trend. With that said, here are my first Power Rankings of the season.
The Big Boys
6. Indianapolis Colts (3-0) - Yes, the Colts are 3-0. Yes, Peyton Manning is leading the NFL's leading pass offense. But I do have my questions. Like, how did Miami's running game dominate them so badly two weeks ago and how did they struggle so badly at home against Jacksonville?
7. San Francisco 49ers (2-1) - It hasn't been pretty, but take away that ridinculocity from Brett Favre and this team is 3-0 with a win at Minnesota. Frank Gore's ankle injury will hurt them, but Singletary + Shaun Hill seems to = Wins.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) - They beat Green Bay. They beat Pittsburgh. If it weren't for the luckiest play ever for Brandon Stokely, they would have beaten Denver and would be 3-0. Regardless, people are starting to notice their defense, while Cedric Benson has emerged as a pretty solid back.
9. Denver Broncos (3-0) - 10 bucks says you didn't have the Broncos at 3-0 to start the year. Yeah, they've only allowed 5.3 points per game so far, but let's see how they handle Dallas this weekend before getting too crazy about them.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) - 5th ranked defense, 7th ranked offense and #1 ranked creative playcalling have fans believing the sky's the limit for this talented group.
11. Dallas Cowboys (2-1) - The sky isn't falling nearly as much as the media would like you to believe. Big D's only loss was by 2 points to arguably the best team in the NFL. The Defense also finally woke up this past Monday night.
12. New England Patriots (2-1) - Yeah, they could be 1-2 right now if it weren't for a choke job by Buffalo, but Tom Brady looked very sharp in a win over Atlanta, while the defense has been a pleasant, yet unheralded, surprise.
The Average Joes
13. Chicago Bears (2-1) - Jay Cutler has been fine since the Week 1 debacle, while the defense has been a surprising bright spot, but where in the world is Matt Forte?
14. Green Bay Packers (2-1) - Still kind of a mystery. They're only the 22nd ranked offense, but are scoring 27 points per game. Their defense also seems suspect, but they've intercepted 7 passes already. This team has potential.
15. Atlanta Falcons (2-1) - 23rd on offense, 24 on defense. Michael Turner is having the sophomore slump many expected Matt Ryan to have.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) - The only 1-2 team that people don't seems worried about. Big Ben has put them in position to win, and allowed the defense to hold for the win. The problem is, they can't run the ball, which is a big reason reason why they're not closing out games.
17. San Diego Chargers (2-1) - Running game has really struggled, but luckily Philip Rivers has picked up the slack. Still, they struggled to beat Oakland, and Miami should have been much easier than it ended up being last week.
Who are these guys?
18. Arizona Cardinals (1-2) - Well, they can still throw the ball, but Kurt Warner is hurting. They can beat the bad teams, but struggled mightily against Indianapolis and San Francisco. Also, they can't stop the pass, and there's no bright side to that one.
19. Seattle Seahawks (1-2) - They are absurdly banged up for the second year in a row, but have remained competitive. Last week, behind Seneca Wallace, they were beating Chicago until the Two-Minute Warning.
20. Houston Texans (1-2) - The good news is, they can still throw the ball all over the field and put up points. The problem is, Steve Slaton is having a horrific sophomore slump and the defense is allowing over 200 yards per game on the ground.
21. Tennessee Titans (0-3) - Yeah they're 0-3, but they've been in position to win all three games. They went down to the wire at Pittsburgh, had to endure a great comeback by Houston and remained close with the Jets. They really need a win at Jacksonville this weekend.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) - They've been competitive, but like all three AFC South teams not led by Peyton Manning, they have many, many question marks, starting with a completely non-existent pass rush.
The Forgettables
23. Buffalo Bills (1-2) - Good news: They should have beaten New England and Fred Jackson has over 400 total yards already. The bad news: They got whooped by a Saints team that didn't even have their best stuff on Sunday.
24. Detroit Lions (1-2) - As owner William Clay Ford said: "We got King-Kong off our back". Nice to see Matthew Stafford have a quality game.
25. Washington Redskins (1-2) - They're far too talented to be this low on the list, but they have an awful habit of playing down to their competition. Clinton Portis is wearing down prematurely.
26. Carolina Panthers (0-3) - Stop buying into Carolina, people. Jake Delhomme and John Fox have put up a lot of wins over the years, but they're also what's made Carolina so wildly inconsistent in the same span. Also, as expected, the injury to Ma'ake Kemoeatu is allowing teams to run all over them.
The Losers
27. Oakland Raiders (1-2) - Can we say it? Can we finally, without question, say it? Jamarcus Russell is an awful NFL QB who was only drafted #1 overall because of arm strength, a mistake that scouts make year after year after year. His rating is 39.8 this year with a 41.3 completion percentage.
28. Miami Dolphins (0-3) - Whether you like Chad Pennington or not, you have to admit that he is unquestionably the leader and MVP of this team. They'll miss him a lot. Ted Ginn may have a slight grin on his face, however, now that he can better utilize his deep speed.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) - Their defense is a little better, but their offensive line is not. Larry Johnson is rushing for 2.5 yards per carry and the QBs have been sacked 8 times this year. Also, they lost at home to the Raiders.
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) - 0 points, 58 passing yards, 28 rushing yards, just 5 first downs, 0 sacks, 0 turnovers forced and 226 yards allowed on the ground at home against the Giants over the weekend. This was professional football players playing against each other, not Florida vs. Charleston Southern. Shameful performance by the rebuilding Bucs.
31. St. Louis Rams (0-3) - They've put up 8 points per game against less-than-stellar offenses, they've allowed over 400 yards per game, their only receiver who has over 85 yards over the first three games was the #5 receiver for Atlanta last year, and they probably will have Kyle Boller starting at QB for them. This is ugly.
32. Cleveland Browns (0-3) - Trent Dilfer, arguably ESPN's best analyst, said that Peyton Manning and Tom Brady would struggle with this offense. They've allowed 11 sacks in three games and their average score per game is 10-32. They've also failed to score an offensive touchdown in 8 of their last 9 games. That may be the worst stat in all of football right now.
The Big Boys
- New York Giants (3-0) - Who said Eli needs Plax? As I predicted, Manning has been even better without Burress, connecting with new favorites Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. Oh, and the defense allowed only 86 yards last week. Ridiculous.
- Baltimore Ravens (3-0) - A team known for stifling defense has scored 34.3 points per game. Joe Flacco is looking extremely sharp so far.
- New Orleans Saints (3-0) - 40 points per game? Are you kidding me? And as impressive as Drew Brees has been, what's being overlooked is the running game, which is putting up over 170 yards per game.
- Minnesota Vikings (3-0) - One word to describe Brett Favre's game-winning pass to Greg Lewis last week: Ridinculocity. I'm having a hard time thinking of any play that was that amazing, in which NO luck was involved. That play was pure skill.
- New York Jets (3-0) - The NFL's 3rd ranked defense has a QB who appears to be the real deal, a Head Coach who has lit a fire under his team and a CB in Darelle Revis, who is nearing Nnamdi Asomugha status right now.
6. Indianapolis Colts (3-0) - Yes, the Colts are 3-0. Yes, Peyton Manning is leading the NFL's leading pass offense. But I do have my questions. Like, how did Miami's running game dominate them so badly two weeks ago and how did they struggle so badly at home against Jacksonville?
7. San Francisco 49ers (2-1) - It hasn't been pretty, but take away that ridinculocity from Brett Favre and this team is 3-0 with a win at Minnesota. Frank Gore's ankle injury will hurt them, but Singletary + Shaun Hill seems to = Wins.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) - They beat Green Bay. They beat Pittsburgh. If it weren't for the luckiest play ever for Brandon Stokely, they would have beaten Denver and would be 3-0. Regardless, people are starting to notice their defense, while Cedric Benson has emerged as a pretty solid back.
9. Denver Broncos (3-0) - 10 bucks says you didn't have the Broncos at 3-0 to start the year. Yeah, they've only allowed 5.3 points per game so far, but let's see how they handle Dallas this weekend before getting too crazy about them.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) - 5th ranked defense, 7th ranked offense and #1 ranked creative playcalling have fans believing the sky's the limit for this talented group.
11. Dallas Cowboys (2-1) - The sky isn't falling nearly as much as the media would like you to believe. Big D's only loss was by 2 points to arguably the best team in the NFL. The Defense also finally woke up this past Monday night.
12. New England Patriots (2-1) - Yeah, they could be 1-2 right now if it weren't for a choke job by Buffalo, but Tom Brady looked very sharp in a win over Atlanta, while the defense has been a pleasant, yet unheralded, surprise.
The Average Joes
13. Chicago Bears (2-1) - Jay Cutler has been fine since the Week 1 debacle, while the defense has been a surprising bright spot, but where in the world is Matt Forte?
14. Green Bay Packers (2-1) - Still kind of a mystery. They're only the 22nd ranked offense, but are scoring 27 points per game. Their defense also seems suspect, but they've intercepted 7 passes already. This team has potential.
15. Atlanta Falcons (2-1) - 23rd on offense, 24 on defense. Michael Turner is having the sophomore slump many expected Matt Ryan to have.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) - The only 1-2 team that people don't seems worried about. Big Ben has put them in position to win, and allowed the defense to hold for the win. The problem is, they can't run the ball, which is a big reason reason why they're not closing out games.
17. San Diego Chargers (2-1) - Running game has really struggled, but luckily Philip Rivers has picked up the slack. Still, they struggled to beat Oakland, and Miami should have been much easier than it ended up being last week.
Who are these guys?
18. Arizona Cardinals (1-2) - Well, they can still throw the ball, but Kurt Warner is hurting. They can beat the bad teams, but struggled mightily against Indianapolis and San Francisco. Also, they can't stop the pass, and there's no bright side to that one.
19. Seattle Seahawks (1-2) - They are absurdly banged up for the second year in a row, but have remained competitive. Last week, behind Seneca Wallace, they were beating Chicago until the Two-Minute Warning.
20. Houston Texans (1-2) - The good news is, they can still throw the ball all over the field and put up points. The problem is, Steve Slaton is having a horrific sophomore slump and the defense is allowing over 200 yards per game on the ground.
21. Tennessee Titans (0-3) - Yeah they're 0-3, but they've been in position to win all three games. They went down to the wire at Pittsburgh, had to endure a great comeback by Houston and remained close with the Jets. They really need a win at Jacksonville this weekend.
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) - They've been competitive, but like all three AFC South teams not led by Peyton Manning, they have many, many question marks, starting with a completely non-existent pass rush.
The Forgettables
23. Buffalo Bills (1-2) - Good news: They should have beaten New England and Fred Jackson has over 400 total yards already. The bad news: They got whooped by a Saints team that didn't even have their best stuff on Sunday.
24. Detroit Lions (1-2) - As owner William Clay Ford said: "We got King-Kong off our back". Nice to see Matthew Stafford have a quality game.
25. Washington Redskins (1-2) - They're far too talented to be this low on the list, but they have an awful habit of playing down to their competition. Clinton Portis is wearing down prematurely.
26. Carolina Panthers (0-3) - Stop buying into Carolina, people. Jake Delhomme and John Fox have put up a lot of wins over the years, but they're also what's made Carolina so wildly inconsistent in the same span. Also, as expected, the injury to Ma'ake Kemoeatu is allowing teams to run all over them.
The Losers
27. Oakland Raiders (1-2) - Can we say it? Can we finally, without question, say it? Jamarcus Russell is an awful NFL QB who was only drafted #1 overall because of arm strength, a mistake that scouts make year after year after year. His rating is 39.8 this year with a 41.3 completion percentage.
28. Miami Dolphins (0-3) - Whether you like Chad Pennington or not, you have to admit that he is unquestionably the leader and MVP of this team. They'll miss him a lot. Ted Ginn may have a slight grin on his face, however, now that he can better utilize his deep speed.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (0-3) - Their defense is a little better, but their offensive line is not. Larry Johnson is rushing for 2.5 yards per carry and the QBs have been sacked 8 times this year. Also, they lost at home to the Raiders.
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) - 0 points, 58 passing yards, 28 rushing yards, just 5 first downs, 0 sacks, 0 turnovers forced and 226 yards allowed on the ground at home against the Giants over the weekend. This was professional football players playing against each other, not Florida vs. Charleston Southern. Shameful performance by the rebuilding Bucs.
31. St. Louis Rams (0-3) - They've put up 8 points per game against less-than-stellar offenses, they've allowed over 400 yards per game, their only receiver who has over 85 yards over the first three games was the #5 receiver for Atlanta last year, and they probably will have Kyle Boller starting at QB for them. This is ugly.
32. Cleveland Browns (0-3) - Trent Dilfer, arguably ESPN's best analyst, said that Peyton Manning and Tom Brady would struggle with this offense. They've allowed 11 sacks in three games and their average score per game is 10-32. They've also failed to score an offensive touchdown in 8 of their last 9 games. That may be the worst stat in all of football right now.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Penn State vs. Akron Post-Game Notes
- Darryl Clark hasn't missed a beat and really helped an unproven WR corp look absolutely solid out there
- There's plenty of versatility in this new WR group. Derek Moye is looking like a great deep threat, Graham Zug is a solid possession guy, Brett Brackett is the biggest target at PSU since Joe Jurevicious and Chaz Powell is a do-it-all option for this offense.
- Moye and Powell, especially, were very impressive in their starting debuts
- The running game, on the other hand, is a concern. Evan Royster and Stephfon Green benefitted from a sensational interior line last season. In the first game, new starters Lou Eliades and Matt Stankiewitch failed to open up many holes in the run game.
- Coach Paterno mentioned that Akron unexpectantly used 4-man fronts most of the game instead of the 3-5 set that they had employed last season, leading to confusion in blocking assignments along the line. I want to buy that, but a) By the second half, you'd think the O-Line would have adjusted and b) They had been practicing against 4-man fronts all off-season.
- Defensively, Penn State boasts an extremely stout DT duo in Ollie Ogbu and Jared Odrick. Odrick, especially, appears to be a first-day pick in next year's NFL draft.
- Navarro Bowman left in the first quarter because of a nagging groin injury that's hampered him for some time, but Nathan Stupar stepped in and outplayed everyone in the back-7.
- Sean Lee was solid, but unspectacular. Having not played in a competetive football game since the 2007 Alamo Bowl, that's somewhat understandable, but he's been healthy for 8 months now, so look for him to return to being spectacular again.
- The secondary looked fine, despite outspoken concerns about the group leading upto Saturday. Other than one blown coverage by Nick Sukay, the entire group played solidly.
- Andrew Dailey had and interception and had the game's longest run on a fake punt. I wonder if he'll get more opportunities in the future.
- New kicker Collin Wagner struggled. But remember, kicking is the only element of football where you can't get into a rhythm because it's done so sporadically. So nerves play a really big part in it. First-year kickers tend to struggle. Remember, Kevin Kelly had a rough first season, too. I'm willing to stay patient with Wagner
- I hate Royster returning punts. Punt Returning is an extremely dangerous part of football, and Royster is a key kog to this offense. On one return, it looked like Royster's leg bent a little awkwardly, and sure enough, he sat out the entire drive as Green handled the duties. Why would you ever want your starting RB unavailable for an offensive series? Get Royster off Special Teams!
- Tons of True Freshman, especially for a Paterno team. WR Devon Smith was a huge surprise to me, given that he's 5'7 and 153 lbs. The freshman was an active part of the offense and actually had Penn State's first touch of the season, as he returned the opening kickoff. Other true Freshmen contributing were WR Curtis Drake, DE Sean Stanley, QB Kevin Newsome, S Gerald Hodges and DB Stephon Morris
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Inside the NFL Season Preview
Here’s a recap of Inside the NFL’s Predictions Show before Week 1
Host: Trevor Turner
Analysts: Kevin Gallagher, Jeremy Richfield, Jeremy Kahn, Marco Ranzi
NFC East:
Team To Beat:
• Gallagher: Philadelphia Eagles
• Richfield: Philadelphia Eagles
• Kahn: New York Giants
• Turner: New York Giants
MVP:
• Gallagher: OLB DeMarcus Ware, Dallas Cowboys
• Richfield: RB Brandon Jacobs, Giants
• Kahn: RB Brandon Jacobs, Giants
• Turner: QB Eli Manning, Giants
Bold Prediction:
• Gallagher: Brandon Jacobs leads NFC East in rushing
• Richfield: Rookie WR Hakeem Nicks has strong impact for Giants
• Kahn: Eli Manning has solid year, Giants and Cowboys lead division
• Turner: Eagles fail to make playoffs
NFC North:
Team To Beat:
• Gallagher: Green Bay Packers
• Richfield: Minnesota Vikings
• Kahn: Minnesota Vikings
• Turner: Green Bay Packers
MVP:
• Gallagher: RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings
• Richfield: RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings
• Kahn: QB Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
• Turner: RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings
Bold Prediction:
• Gallagher: Cutler leads Bears to playoffs
• Richfield: Detroit Lions post .500 record
• Kahn: QB Aaron Rodgers won’t have great season
• Turner: Bears win less games than last season
NFC South:
Team To Beat:
• Gallagher: New Orleans Saints
• Richfield: Atlanta Falcons
• Kahn: New Orleans Saints
• Turner: New Orleans Saints
MVP:
• Gallagher: QB Drew Brees, Saints
• Richfield: QB Drew Brees, Saints
• Kahn: QB Drew Brees, Saints
• Turner: QB Drew Brees, Saints
Bold Prediction:
• Gallagher: Saints only team to make playoffs
• Richfield: RB Pierre Thomas becomes solid ground threat for Saints
• Kahn: Carolina Panthers and Falcons fail to make playoffs
• Turner: Panthers will be NFL’s most disappointing team
NFC West:
Team To Beat:
• Gallagher: Arizona Cardinals
• Richfield: Arizona Cardinals
• Kahn: Arizona Cardinals
• Turner: San Francisco 49ers
MVP:
• Gallagher: QB Kurt Warner, Cardinals
• Richfield: WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
• Kahn: QB Kurt Warner, Cardinals
• Turner: MLB Patrick Willis, 49ers
Bold Prediction:
• Gallagher: 49ers finish above .500
• Richfield: Steven Jackson has bounce back season for St. Louis Rams
• Kahn: Seattle Seahawks won’t be any better this season
• Turner: OLBs Manny Lawson and Parys Haralson combine for 20 sacks for Niners
AFC East:
Team To Beat:
• Ranzi: New England Patriots
• Richfield: New England Patriots
• Gallagher: New England Patriots
• Turner: New England Patriots
MVP:
• Ranzi: QB Tom Brady, Patriots
• Richfield: RB Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins
• Gallagher: QB Tom Brady, Patriots
• Turner: QB Tom Brady, Patriots
Bold Prediction:
• Ranzi: New York Jets make playoffs
• Richfield: QB Trent Edwards has breakout season for Buffalo Bills
• Gallagher: Jets won’t improve as much as expected
• Turner: Every team other than Patriots has worse record than last season
AFC North:
Team To Beat:
• Ranzi: Pittsburgh Steelers
• Richfield: Pittsburgh Steelers
• Gallagher: Pittsburgh Steelers
• Turner: Baltimore Ravens
MVP:
• Ranzi: FS Troy Polamalu, Steelers
• Richfield: QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals
• Gallagher: WR Chad Ochocinco, Bengals
• Turner: DE Haloti Ngata, Ravens
Bold Prediction:
• Ranzi: Cleveland Browns and Bengals have improved seasons
• Richfield: Ravens miss playoffs, have disappointing season
• Gallagher: Eric Mangini won’t improve anything in Cleveland
• Turner: Bengals will be much improved, win 8 games
AFC South:
Team To Beat:
• Ranzi: Indianapolis Colts
• Richfield: Indianapolis Colts
• Kahn: Indianapolis Colts
• Turner: Indianapolis Colts
MVP:
• Ranzi: WR Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
• Richfield: QB Peyton Manning, Colts
• Kahn: QB Peyton Manning, Colts
• Turner: DE Mario Williams, Texans
Bold Prediction:
• Ranzi: Texans make playoffs
• Richfield: Rookie RB Donald Brown has big impact for Colts
• Kahn: Tennessee Titans stay strong without Haynesworth
• Turner: Texans make playoffs
AFC West:
Team To Beat:
• Ranzi: San Diego Chargers
• Richfield: San Diego Chargers
• Kahn: San Diego Chargers
• Turner: San Diego Chargers
MVP:
• Ranzi: QB Philip Rivers, Chargers
• Richfield: QB Philip Rivers, Chargers
• Kahn: QB Philip Rivers, Chargers
• Turner: CB Nnamdi Asomugha, Oakland Raiders
Bold Prediction:
• Ranzi: Entire division finishes below .500, except Chargers
• Richfield: Denver Broncos are NFL’s most disappointing team
• Kahn: Chiefs and Raiders show no improvement
• Turner: Chargers sweep division and are only team to finish above 6-10
Host: Trevor Turner
Analysts: Kevin Gallagher, Jeremy Richfield, Jeremy Kahn, Marco Ranzi
NFC East:
Team To Beat:
• Gallagher: Philadelphia Eagles
• Richfield: Philadelphia Eagles
• Kahn: New York Giants
• Turner: New York Giants
MVP:
• Gallagher: OLB DeMarcus Ware, Dallas Cowboys
• Richfield: RB Brandon Jacobs, Giants
• Kahn: RB Brandon Jacobs, Giants
• Turner: QB Eli Manning, Giants
Bold Prediction:
• Gallagher: Brandon Jacobs leads NFC East in rushing
• Richfield: Rookie WR Hakeem Nicks has strong impact for Giants
• Kahn: Eli Manning has solid year, Giants and Cowboys lead division
• Turner: Eagles fail to make playoffs
NFC North:
Team To Beat:
• Gallagher: Green Bay Packers
• Richfield: Minnesota Vikings
• Kahn: Minnesota Vikings
• Turner: Green Bay Packers
MVP:
• Gallagher: RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings
• Richfield: RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings
• Kahn: QB Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
• Turner: RB Adrian Peterson, Vikings
Bold Prediction:
• Gallagher: Cutler leads Bears to playoffs
• Richfield: Detroit Lions post .500 record
• Kahn: QB Aaron Rodgers won’t have great season
• Turner: Bears win less games than last season
NFC South:
Team To Beat:
• Gallagher: New Orleans Saints
• Richfield: Atlanta Falcons
• Kahn: New Orleans Saints
• Turner: New Orleans Saints
MVP:
• Gallagher: QB Drew Brees, Saints
• Richfield: QB Drew Brees, Saints
• Kahn: QB Drew Brees, Saints
• Turner: QB Drew Brees, Saints
Bold Prediction:
• Gallagher: Saints only team to make playoffs
• Richfield: RB Pierre Thomas becomes solid ground threat for Saints
• Kahn: Carolina Panthers and Falcons fail to make playoffs
• Turner: Panthers will be NFL’s most disappointing team
NFC West:
Team To Beat:
• Gallagher: Arizona Cardinals
• Richfield: Arizona Cardinals
• Kahn: Arizona Cardinals
• Turner: San Francisco 49ers
MVP:
• Gallagher: QB Kurt Warner, Cardinals
• Richfield: WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
• Kahn: QB Kurt Warner, Cardinals
• Turner: MLB Patrick Willis, 49ers
Bold Prediction:
• Gallagher: 49ers finish above .500
• Richfield: Steven Jackson has bounce back season for St. Louis Rams
• Kahn: Seattle Seahawks won’t be any better this season
• Turner: OLBs Manny Lawson and Parys Haralson combine for 20 sacks for Niners
AFC East:
Team To Beat:
• Ranzi: New England Patriots
• Richfield: New England Patriots
• Gallagher: New England Patriots
• Turner: New England Patriots
MVP:
• Ranzi: QB Tom Brady, Patriots
• Richfield: RB Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins
• Gallagher: QB Tom Brady, Patriots
• Turner: QB Tom Brady, Patriots
Bold Prediction:
• Ranzi: New York Jets make playoffs
• Richfield: QB Trent Edwards has breakout season for Buffalo Bills
• Gallagher: Jets won’t improve as much as expected
• Turner: Every team other than Patriots has worse record than last season
AFC North:
Team To Beat:
• Ranzi: Pittsburgh Steelers
• Richfield: Pittsburgh Steelers
• Gallagher: Pittsburgh Steelers
• Turner: Baltimore Ravens
MVP:
• Ranzi: FS Troy Polamalu, Steelers
• Richfield: QB Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals
• Gallagher: WR Chad Ochocinco, Bengals
• Turner: DE Haloti Ngata, Ravens
Bold Prediction:
• Ranzi: Cleveland Browns and Bengals have improved seasons
• Richfield: Ravens miss playoffs, have disappointing season
• Gallagher: Eric Mangini won’t improve anything in Cleveland
• Turner: Bengals will be much improved, win 8 games
AFC South:
Team To Beat:
• Ranzi: Indianapolis Colts
• Richfield: Indianapolis Colts
• Kahn: Indianapolis Colts
• Turner: Indianapolis Colts
MVP:
• Ranzi: WR Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
• Richfield: QB Peyton Manning, Colts
• Kahn: QB Peyton Manning, Colts
• Turner: DE Mario Williams, Texans
Bold Prediction:
• Ranzi: Texans make playoffs
• Richfield: Rookie RB Donald Brown has big impact for Colts
• Kahn: Tennessee Titans stay strong without Haynesworth
• Turner: Texans make playoffs
AFC West:
Team To Beat:
• Ranzi: San Diego Chargers
• Richfield: San Diego Chargers
• Kahn: San Diego Chargers
• Turner: San Diego Chargers
MVP:
• Ranzi: QB Philip Rivers, Chargers
• Richfield: QB Philip Rivers, Chargers
• Kahn: QB Philip Rivers, Chargers
• Turner: CB Nnamdi Asomugha, Oakland Raiders
Bold Prediction:
• Ranzi: Entire division finishes below .500, except Chargers
• Richfield: Denver Broncos are NFL’s most disappointing team
• Kahn: Chiefs and Raiders show no improvement
• Turner: Chargers sweep division and are only team to finish above 6-10
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Quick Preview: Miami Dolphins
Since the last time we saw them:
2008 Record: 11-5, Wild Card loss vs. Baltimore
Key Additions: C Jake Grove, OLB Jason Taylor, S Gibril Wilson, CB Eric Green, DL Tony McDaniel, OL Joe Berger
Key Losses: CB Andre Goodman, DL Vonnie Holliday, S Renaldo Hill, C Samson Satele, C Al Johnson, LB Derek Smith, QB John Beck
Top Draft Picks: CB Vontae Davis, QB Pat White, CB Sean Smith, WR Brian Hartline
What we now know:
Best Player: OLB Joey Porter
Most Underrated: S Yeremiah Bell
Looking Forward:
Breakout Candidates: WR Ted Ginn Jr., WR Davone Bess, DL Kendall Langford
Looking to bounce back: WR Greg Camarillo, OLB Jason Taylor, OG Donald Thomas
Time to step up: OG Donald Thomas, DL Randy Starks
Strengths:
- An incredibly smart and accurate QB in Chad Pennington
- A quality, versatile RB in Ronnie Brown
- A quality pair of bookend OTs in Jake Long and Vernon Carey headline a solid Offensive Line
- OLB Porter's pass rush ability
- ILB Channing Crowder's solid, consistent play
- A quality S duo in Bell and Wilson
- Depth almost everywhere
- The ideal pieces in place to run the Wildcat Offense
- A strong Front Office and coaching staff, overseen by Bill Parcells
- QB Pennington's poor arm strength limiting the offense
- QB Pennington's health, given that last year was only the second year that he has remained healthy through 16 games
- Lack of big-time difference makers at WR
- Unproven potential starters at RG position
- RDE position manned by underachievers Starks and Phillip Merling
- CB spot opposite Will Allen to be manned by unproven players/rookies
- New FS Wilson's ability to switch from SS
- Absolutely brutal schedule (only 3 games against '08 teams with losing records)
- Increased expectations puts bull's eye on team's back
Quick Preview: Buffalo Bills
Since the last time we saw them:
2008 Record: 7-9
Key Additions: WR Terrell Owens, C Geoff Hangartner, CB Drayton Florence, OL Seth McKinney, RB Dominic Rhodes
Key Losses: LT Jason Peters, OLB Angelo Crowell, OG Derrick Dockery, C Melvin Fowler, CB Jabari Greer, LB Teddy Lehman, QB J.P. Losman, C Duke Preston, TE Robert Royal, OL Jason Whittle
Top Draft Picks: DE Aaron Maybin, OL Eric Wood, OL Andy Levitre, S Jairus Byrd
What we now know:
Best Player: WR Terrell Owens
Most Underrated: CB Terrence McGee
Looking Forward:
Breakout Candidates: QB Trent Edwards, MLB Paul Posluszny, CB Leodis McKelvin, S Donte Whitner
Looking to bounce back: DE Aaron Schobel, DT Marcus Stroud
Time to step up: TE Derek Fine, TE Derek Shouman, C Geoff Hangartner, OG Eric Wood, OG Andy Levitre, CB Leodis McKelvin
Strengths:
- A deep, talented WR corp led by Owens and Lee Evans
- A powerful young RB in Marshawn Lynch with a capable backup in Fred Jackson
- A talented CB tandem in McGee and McKelvin
- Superbe special teams
- Several young talents on the verge of breaking out
- Entire Offensive Line is either unproven or unreliable
- Pass protection could be real problem with Langston Walker protecting QB Edwards's blind side
- RB Lynch's 3-game suspension at start of season
- TE position
- Pass rush if DE Schobel can't bounce back from injury and DE Maybin doesn't have great rookie season
- SLB Keith Ellison is really more of a Nickel LB than a starter
- LB position thin and relatively mediocre
- Head Coach Dick Jauron's inability to take team to the next level the last two seasons
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Quick Preview: Seattle Seahawks
Since the last time we saw them:
2008 Record: 4-12
Key Additions: WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, DT Colin Cole, DL Cory Redding, CB Ken Lucas, FB Justin Griffith, TE John Owens, CB Travis Fisher, OC Greg Knapp, DC Casey Bradley
Key Losses: WR Bobby Engram, OLB Julian Peterson, DT Rocky Bernard, OG Mike Wahle, OL Floyd Womack, WR Koren Robinson, FB Leonard Weaver, RB Maurice Morris, TE Will Heller, OG Chris Gray, QB Charlie Frye, HC Mike Holmgren
Top Draft Picks: OLB Aaron Curry, C Max Unger
What we now know:
Best Player: MLB Lofa Tatupu
Most Underrated: DT Brandon Mebane
Looking Forward:
Breakout Candidates: TE John Carlson, DT Brandon Mebane, DE Darryl Tapp
Looking to bounce back: QB Matt Hasselbeck, WR Nate Burleson, OG Rob Sims, DE Patrick Kerney, CB Ken Lucas
Time to step up: OG Mansfield Wrotto, RB Julius Jones, OT Sean Locklear, DT Colin Cole, HC Jim Mora Jr.
Strengths:
- Very talented young LB corp headed by Tatupu and underrated Leroy Hill
- A deep D-Line with DE Kerney coming back and DT Cole and DL Redding added in off-season
- CB Marcus Trufant, whose physical style should transfer well to increased Cover-2 under new DC Bradley
- WR Houshmandzadeh and TE Carlson lead a solid receiving corp that could be a real strength if it remains healthy
- QB Hasselbeck, if healthy, will be solid again
- More coaching stability with new HC Mora Jr.
- Interior Offensive Line
- OT positions, especially since injured LT Walter Jones is unlikely to return before midseason
- RB position, where both Jones and backup T.J. Duckett have struggled in the past
- Health of soon-to-be 34 year-old QB Hasselbeck
- Pass rush if DE Kerney gets hurt again or isn't the same after repeated shoulder surgeries
- CB Trufant's back issues that could possible put him on the PUP list
- Shaky Special Teams, reliant on either unknown second-year K Brandon Coutu or a repeat career-year from K Olindo Mare
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Quick Preview: San Francisco 49ers
Since the last time we saw them:
2008 Record: 7-9
Key Additions: OT Marvel Smith, CB Dre Bly, WR Brandon Jones, FB Moran Norris, QB Damon Huard, DE Demetric Evans, LB Marques Harris, OC Jimmy Raye
Key Losses: WR Bryant Johnson, OLB Tully Banta-Cain, TE Billy Bajema, RB DeShaun Foster, DT Ronald Fields, CB Donald Strickland, OT Jonas Jennings, DE Roderick Green, S Keith Lewis, QB J.T. O'Sullivan
Top Draft Picks: WR Michael Crabtree, RB Glen Coffee
What we now know:
Best Player: ILB Patrick Willis
Most Underrated: QB Shaun Hill
Looking Forward:
Breakout Candidates: QB Shaun Hill, WR Josh Morgan, TE Vernon Davis, RG Chilo Rachal, OLB Manny Lawson, OLB Parys Haralson
Looking to bounce back: QB Alex Smith, OT Marvel Smith, FB Moran Norris
Time to step up: LG David Baas, S Dashon Goldson, CB Tarell Brown
Strengths:
- RB Frank Gore, a tough inside runner who will get more carries in new offense and gets FB Norris back
- C Eric Heitmann and LT Joe Staley are very nice players, while RG Rachal came on strong last season
- QB Hill's 7-3 career record and 101.3 4th quarter passer rating
- Talented, but immature TE Davis's fit in new TE-friendly offense
- ILB Willis, arguably the NFL's best interior LB pairs with solid veteran Takeo Spikes
- Strong, versatile, consistent and never injured DE Justin Smith
- OLBs Haralson had strong '08 season while OLB Lawson is now fully healthy after '07 ACL tear
- CB Nate Clements
- SS Michael Lewis's excellent play versus the run
- Special teams very strong with Pro Bowl P Andy Lee, solid K Joe Nedney and ageless KR Allen Rossum
- Depth relatively strong across the board
- Niners were 5-2 down the stretch last season and 5-4 under interim HC Mike Singletary
- Intense HC Singletary now has total control over players and schemes
- Defense improved by 10 points per game after full switch to 3-4 midway through '08
- QB position, where incumbent Hill is gritty, but lacks pro arm or tools is battling disappointing former #1 overall pick Alex Smith
- Lack of game changers at WR due to Crabtree holdout
- O-Line allowed NFL high 55 sacks last season
- Questions at RT and LG (OG Baas has been disappointing and OT Smith is still hurt)
- NT Aubreyo Franklin
- Pass rush, should OLB Lawson fail to break out
- Potentially career-ending injury to CB Walt Harris leaves #2 CB spot in hands of banged of CB Brown and veteran CB Bly, who had dreadful season in Denver
- Unproven S Goldson
Monday, August 17, 2009
Quick Preview: St. Louis Rams
Since the last time we saw them:
2008 Record: 2-14
Key Additions: C Jason Brown, S James Butler, WR Laurent Robinson, FB Mike Karney, QB Kyle Boller, DT Gary Gibson, WR Tim Carter, WR Ronald Curry, TE Billy Bajema, HC Steve Spagnuolo, OC Pat Shurmur, DC Ken Flajole
Key Losses: WR Torry Holt, OLB Pisa Tinoisamoa, LT Orlando Pace, C Nick Leckey, DT La'Roi Glover, S Corey Chavous, CB Fakhir Brown, CB Jason Craft, TE Anthony Becht, QB Trent Green, WR Dante Hall, WR Drew Bennett, FB Brian Leonard, WR Dane Looker, CB Ricky Manning, Rb Travis Minor, C Brett Romberg, LB Gary Stills
Top Draft Picks: OT Jason Smith, LB James Laurinaitis, CB Bradley Fletcher
What we now know:
Best Player: S O.J. Atogwe
Most Underrated: CB Ron Bartell
Looking Forward:
Breakout Candidates: DE Chris Long, DT Clifton Ryan, WR Laurent Robinson, WR Donnie Avery
Looking to bounce back: QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, LG Jacob Bell, DE Leonard Little
Time to step up: WR Keenan Burton, OT Alex Barron, DT Adam Carriker, CB Tye Hill, CB Jonathan Wade
Strengths:
- RB Steven Jackson can do it all, including catch, a big bonus for new OC Shurmur's West Coast Offense
- C Jason Brown is a stud and will help lead an underachieving O-Line
- Second-year WR Avery should improve on solid rookie season
- LB Will Witherspoon has been a very nice MLB for three years and now moves back to natural WLB spot
- HC Spagnuolo has a deep group of big DEs, and should have a nice Nickel pass rush
- Secondary features NFL's top ball-hawking FS Atogwe, while SS Butler is an improvement over departed Corey Chavous
- CB Bartell is a solid player who broke up 19 passes in '08
- P Donnie Jones averaged over 50 yards per punt and coverage units allowed no TDs
- QB Bulger has been really mediocre the past two seasons, posting 6 more INTs than TDs since career year in '06
- RB Jackson, while productive, has missed equivalent of 10 games the past two seasons and has no quality backup
- WR position a complete unknown, especially with Avery very possibly missing start of season with foot stress fracture
- O-Line allowed 45 sacks last year while OT Barron and RG Richie Incognito take tons of bad penalties
- LG Bell, a terrible free agent bust last season and earns 6 mill/year
- DT position completely reliant on emergence of disappointing Carriker and incumbent Ryan
- LB Laurinaitas being thrown into lineup as rookie next to SLB Chris Draft, who is aging and declining athletically
- CB opposite Bartell, most likely to be manned by underachieving former first rounder Hill
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Quick Preview: Arizona Cardinals
Since the last time we saw them:
2008 Record: 9-7, Wild Card win against Atlanta, Divisional Playoffs win at Carolina, NFC Championship win at Philadelphia, Super Bowl loss to Pittsburgh
Key Additions: CB Bryant McFadden, RB Jason Wright, TE Anthony Becht, FB Dan Kreider, C Melvin Fowler
Key Losses: DE Antonio Smith, RB J.J. Arrington, LB Monty Beisel, CB Eric Green, CB Rod Hood, RB Edgerrin James, DE Travis LaBoy, FB Terrelle Smith, OC Todd Haley
Top Draft Picks: RB Chris Wells, OLB Cody Brown
What we now know:
Best Player: WR Larry Fitzgerald
Most Underrated: LT Mike Gandy
Looking Forward:
Breakout Candidates: RB Tim Hightower, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, S Antrel Rolle
Looking to bounce back: LOLB Clark Haggans
Time to step up: DE Calais Campbell, CB Ralph Brown, CB Michael Adams
Strengths:
- QB Kurt Warner is accurate, smart and arguably has NFL's quickest release
- NFL's best receiving corp in WR Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston
- A very good pass blocking O-Line. (218 blitzes faced, only 6 sacks on blitzes)
- DL Darnell Dockett
- Very nice, underrated ILB duo in Gerald Hayes and Karlos Dansby
- Depth at OLB
- Dependable CB McFadden and potential star in CB Rodgers-Cromartie
- S position deep and talented, led by Adrian Wilson
- K Neil Rackers
- New winning attitude with postseason success
- Rushing game was non-existant last season and incumbent RB Hightower averaged just 2.8 yards per carry.
- QB Warner's surgically repaired hip won't completely heal until March and will hamper his mobility and footwork all season
- Potential Brett Favre-like late-season collapse from aging, 38-year-old QB Warner
- DE Campbell thrown into lineup with departure of Antonio Smith
- Age of NT Bryan Robinson
- Lack of pass rush from aging OLB's (Haggans, Chike Okeafor, Bertand Berry)
- Nickel Back questionable with veteran CB Brown and unproven CB Adams vying for position
- Already poor return game loses best returner in RB Arrington
- Departure of OC Todd Haley, who implimented pass-heavy spread offense to Arizona
- Contract disputes with WR Boldin, LB Dansby and DL Dockett
- Loss of momentum that helped 9-7 team reach Super Bowl
- Bull's Eye on back and lack of us-against-the-world attitude
- Super Bowl loser's curse. (8 of past 10 failed to make playoffs next season with only 1 combined playoff win)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Quick Preview
Since the last time we saw them:
2008 Record: 9-7
Key Additions: TE Kellen Winslow, OLB Angelo Crowell, RB Derrick Ward, QB Byron Leftwich, K Mike Nugent, P Dirk Johnson, LB Niko Koutouvides, DC Jim Bates, OC Jeff Jagodzinski
Key Losses: OLB Derrick Brooks, CB Philip Buchanon, DE Kevin Carter, RB Warrick Dunn, WR Joey Galloway, QB Jeff Garcia, DT Jovan Haye, WR Ike Hilliard, OLB Cato June, TE Alex Smith, QB Brian Griese
Top Draft Pick: QB Josh Freeman
What we now know:
Best Player: RG Davin Joseph
Most Underrated: MLB Barrett Ruud
Looking Forward:
Breakout Candidates: DE Gaines Adams, DE Jimmy Wilkerson, OLB Quincy Black, CB Aqib Talib, S Tanard Jackson
Looking to bounce back: TE Kellen Winslow, OLB Angelo Crowell, RB Carnell Williams, WR Michael Clayton
Time to step up: QB Luke McCown, WR Maurice Stovall, LG Jeremy Zuttah, DE Jimmy Wilkerson, DT Ryan Sims, CB Aqib Talib, CB Elbert Mack
Strengths:
- Depth at RB is solid, and newly added RB Ward is a good fit for new zone-blocking scheme
- Offensive Line is young and talented and led by potential perennial Pro Bowl OG Joseph
- WR Antonio Bryant and TE Winslow's unquestionable talent
- MLB Ruud, who's been one of the NFL's most underrated players for two years now
- 4th ranked pass defense in '08 will get more playmaking opportunites, which bodes well for emerging star CB Talib
- Pass rush should be improved with more blitzing and improvement by DE Adams
- Pro Bowl KR in Clifton Smith
- Week 1 starting QB will most likely be either Luke McCown or Byron Leftwich
- Head cases Bryant, Winslow and TE Jerramy Stevens
- LG Arron Sears's mental problems stemming from a Week 8 concussion in '08
- WR Bryant's knee surgery could force him to miss entire preseason, maybe more.
- Lack of talent, experience and depth at WR beyond Bryant
- Best DT Chris Hovan is a poor fit in new DC Bates's system
- Underachiever DT Ryan Sims will be primary run stuffer
- OLB Jermaine Phillips's transition from SS
- Lack of Depth at CB with no proven Nickel Back
- Rebuilding caused release of many high character veteran leaders, including WR Hilliard, RB Dunn and LB Brooks
- Kicking game injuries to K Matt Bryant and reliable P Josh Bidwell
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Quick Preview: New Orleans Saints
Since the last time we saw them:
2008 Record: 8-8
Key Additions: FS Darren Sharper, DE Paul Spicer, CB Jabari Greer, FB Heath Evans, DT Rod Coleman, S Pierson Prioleau, TE Darnell Dinkins, C Nick Leckey, DC Gregg Williams
Key Losses: RB Deuce McAllister, S Josh Bullocks, CB Mike McKenzie, DT Bryant Young, TE Mark Campbell, CB Aaron Glenn, FB Mike Karney, S KEvin Kaesviharn, DT Antwan Lake, C Matt Lehr, RB Aaron Stecker, DT Hollis Thomas
Top Draft Pick: CB Malcolm Jenkins
What we now know:
Best Player: QB Drew Brees
Most Underrated: NT Kendrick Clancy
Looking Forward:
Breakout Candidates: RB Pierre Thomas, WR Robert Meachum, DT Sedrick Ellis, CB Tracy Porter
Looking to bounce back: WR Marques Colston, RB Reggie Bush, TE Jeremy Shockey, DE Will Smith, DE Charles Grant
Time to step up: CB Tracy Porter, RB Pierre Thomas
Strengths:
- The NFL's best QB without a ring in Brees leads elite passing attack
- A fantastic pass blocking Offensive Line that allowed just 13 sacks last year, anchored by Pro Bowl LT Jammal Brown
- NFL's "best kept secret", according to Jon Gruden, in RB Thomas, who rushed for 475 yards and scored 9 TDs in 5 starts last season.
- WR Meachum has reportedly been extremely impressive all off-season and WR Colston is fully healthy again
- MLB Jonathan Vilma
- Deep and improved secondary with additions of CBs Greer and Jenkins and FS Sharper
- S Roman Harper will be able to maximize blitzing and run stopping ability in new DC Williams's aggressive scheme
- Punt returner Bush had 3 TDs in just 10 games last season
- Saints lost 6 games by total of 18 points
- Team had 17 player wind up on I.R. in '08
- Rushing game could continue to be among NFL's worst if RB Thomas fails to break out
- Pass rush was awful last season and little was done to address that
- Chemistry cancer TE Shockey
- DEs Smith and Grant's dreadful, injury plagued '08 campaigns and possble suspensions for StarCaps incident
- OLB Scott Shanle
- LB depth real concern with likely season-ending injury to key backup Mark Simoneau
- Whether K Garrett Hartley can prove to be reliable for a whole season and sure up woeful kicking game
- Team's ability to close out and finish games
Expectations: Playoffs
Monday, August 10, 2009
Quick Preview: Carolina Panthers
Since the last time we saw them:
2008 Record: 12-4, Divisional Playoffs Loss to Arizona
Key Additions: OL Justin Geisinger, DC Ron Meeks
Key Losses: CB Ken Lucas, OL Geoff Hangartner, OL Jeremy Bridges, DT Gary Gibson, RB Nick Goings, OT Frank Omiyale, WR D.J. Hackett, WR Mark Jones, LB Donte Curry
Top Draft Picks: DE Everette Brown, CB Sherrod Martin, DT Corvey Irvin
What we now know:
Best Player: WR Steve Smith
Most Underrated: LB Thomas Davis
Looking Forward:
Breakout Candidates: DE Charles Johnson, RT Jeff Otah, CB Richard Marshall, S Charles Godfrey, TE Gary Barnidge
Time to step up: DT Nick Hayden, CB Richard Marshall, WR Dwayne Jarrett
Strengths:
- An elite RB tandem in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart
- A great O-Line, especially in pass protection, anchored by LT Jordan Gross
- Gamebreaking WR Steve Smith
- QB Jake Delhomme is a very strong leader and has won 5 playoff games
- NFL's most athletic DE in 2-time All-Pro Julius Peppers, complimented by solid incumbent DEs Tyler Brayton and Charles Johnson
- Pro Bowl MLB Jon Beason and athletic blitz specialist Thomas Davis lead a solid, deep LB corp.
- CB Chris Gamble had exceptional '08 contract season, while new starting CB Marshall has been solid Nickel CB for years.
- S Chris Harris showed flashes in '08 and moves to familiar Tampa-2 system he played in in Chicago.
- Kicking game solid with K John Kasay and P Jason Baker
- In the John Fox era, Carolina has 2nd most wins of any NFC team
- Receiving corps is very thin
- Offensive Line lost its 3 key backups in free agency. No backup O-Lineman has started a single NFL game
- WR Smith's shoulder injury could force him to miss time early on
- QB Jake Delhomme occasionally has just dreadful games (at TB, at OAK, vs. ARI) that no team could overcome
- Achilles injury to DT Maake Kemoeatu is serious blow to run defense, which could be a huge problem since there is no depth at DT
- Panthers' schedule is absolutely brutal. (15 games against .500 or better teams in '08)
- Team was extremely lucky when it came to injuries to starters (only 18 missed starts combined). Odds are that number will be much higher
- Depth really is a concern at a lot of positions should injuries hit
- Coach John Fox's inability to back up winning seasons
Quick Preview: Atlanta Falcons
Since the last time we saw them:
2008 Record: 11-5, Wild Card loss to Arizona
Key Additions: TE Tony Gonzalez, LB Mike Peterson, C Brett Romberg, WR Marty Booker, WR Robert Ferguson, OLB Jamie Winborn
Key Losses: CB Dominique Foxworth, OLB Michael Boley, MLB Keith Brooking, DT Grady Jackson, S Lawyer Milloy, LT Todd Weiner, DT Kindal Moorehead, OT Wayne Gandy
Top Draft Picks: DT Peria Jerry, S William Moore, CB Chris Owens
What we now know:
Best Player: RB Michael Turner
Most Underrated: WR Roddy White
Looking Forward:
Breakout Candidates: MLB Curtis Lofton, LT Sam Baker, LG Justin Blalock, DE Chauncey Davis
Looking to bounce back: LB Mike Peterson, WR Brian Finneran, CB Von Hutchins
Time to step up: OLB Stephen Nicholas, DT Peria Jerry, S Thomas DeCoud, CB Brent Grimes, CB Chevis Jackson
Strengths:
- Awsome running game with powerful RB Turner and speedy RB Jerious Norwood
- QB Matt Ryan, who is coming off of arguably the greatest season ever for a rookie QB
- Playmakers WR White and newly added TE Gonzalez
- Solid, underrated starters at LG, C and RT (OG Blalock, C Todd McClure, OT Tyson Clabo)
- League's most underrated pass rusher in DE John Abraham (16.5 sacks in 'o8, 10 in '07)
- LB Peterson starred in Head Coach Mike Smith's defense in Jacksonville, while LBs Nicholas and Lofton are young, emerging players
- FS Erik Coleman had breakout season in '08
- Special Teams solid with K Jason Elam, franchise P Michael Koenen and return man Norwood
- Injury to second-year man Harry Douglass leaves WR position dangerously thin and without sure-fire slot guy
- QB Matt Ryan's poor play late last season
- RB Turner's durability and wear-and-tear after 377 carries last season (he will get less carries this season)
- Pass rush totally reliant on DE Abraham
- 25th ranked run defense relying on rookie DT Jerry to fix problems
- SLB Nichols, while promising, is completely unproven
- CB position very questionable with incumbent CB Chris Houston starting opposite quagmire of unproven CBs, including 3rd round rookie Owens
- SS will be manned by unproven S DeCoud
- Falcons have loftier expectations, much tougher schedule and even younger roster in '09
Friday, August 7, 2009
Quick Preview: Minnesota Vikings
Since the last time we saw them:
2008 Record: 10-6, Wild Card loss to Philadelphia
Key Additions: QB Sage Rosenfels, CB Karl Paymah
Key Losses: C Matt Birk, S Darren Sharper, QB Gus Frerotte, LB Napoleon Harris, LB Vinny Ciurciu, DT Ellis Wyms
Top Draft Picks: WR Percy Harvin, OT Phil Loadholt
What we now know:
Best Player: DT Kevin Williams
Most Underrated: OLB Chad Greenway
Looking Forward:
Breakout Candidates: DE Ray Edwards, WR Sidney Rice, S Tyrell Johnson
Looking to bounce back: MLB E.J. Henderson, S Madieu Williams
Time to step up: QB Tarvaris Jackson, C John Sullivan, RT Phil Loadholt, S Tyrell Johnson
Strengths:
- The NFL's leading rusher in RB Adrian Peterson
- A very strong left side of the Offensive Line with LT Bryant McKinnie and LG Steve Hutchinson
- An underrated TE in Visanthe Shiancoe
- NFL's best Defensive line with DTs Pat and Kevin Williams and DE Jared Allen
- Elite run defense
- NFL's 4th best pass rush
- Borderline Pro Bowl SAM LB in playmaker Chad Greenway
- NFL's most physical CB tandem in Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin
- Kicking game very solid with K Ryan Longwell and P Chris Kluwe
- QB, where Rosenfels and Jackson have combined 50-47 TD-to-INT ratio
- RB Peterson's fumble issues (Led all RBs with 9 in '08)
- Lack of proven WRs outside of Bernard Berrian
- Unproven RT and C
- Special Teams allowed NFL record 7 return TDs
- Head Coach Brad Childress's predictable playcalling and recent underachieving
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Quick Preview: Green Bay Packers
Since the last time we saw them:
2008 Record: 6-10
Key Additions: C Duke Preston, S Anthony Smith, DC Dom Capers
Key Losses: RT Mark Tauscher, DT Colin Cole
Top Draft Picks: DL B.J. Raji, OLB Clay Matthews
What we now know:
Best Player: CB Charles Woodson
Most Underrated: DE Cullen Jenkins
Looking Forward:
Breakout Candidates: OG Josh Sitton, OG Daryn Colledge, CB Tramon Williams
Looking to bounce back: RB Ryan Grant, DE Cullen Jenkins, S Atari Bigby, ILB Nick Barnett
Time to step up: OT Allen Barbre, NT Ryan Pickett, OLB Clay Matthews
Strengths:
- A promising young QB in Aaron Rodgers with a solid first season under his belt
- RB Grant had down year and still rushed for over 1,200 yards
- WR position is deep and talented, led by Greg Jennings
- Interior Offensive Line is talented and deep
- Addition of Raji and return of Jenkins should drastically improve Defensive Line
- Pass rusher OLB Aaron Kampman will no longer be facing constant double teams, could have monster season
- ILBs Barnett and A.J. Hawk, when healthy, are solid
- Secondary boasts three Pro Bowlers in Woodson, Al Harris and Nick Collins
- PR Will Blackmon had two TDs last season
- 7 of 10 losses were by 4 points or less
- Aaron Rodgers failure to rally team to victory late in games (0-7 in go-ahead oppourtunities with 5 minutes remaining)
- Pass protection with LT Chad Clifton aging and coming off of two knee surgeries and unproven prospects vying for RT spot
- LDE Position with rookie Raji's holdout and DL Johnny Jolly's legal issues
- ILB Barnett's coverage ability at new position following knee surgery
- ROLB position if rookie Matthews and Jeremy Thompson can't make transition to new position
- Pass rush threat outside of OLB Kampman (25th in '08)
- CB Al Harris's transition away from press to zone scheme
- S Bigby's poor 2008 season and injury
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