Monday, July 28, 2008

#1 WR Power Rankings

There was not one receiver taken in the first round of the 2008 NFL Draft. In fact, since 2005, only 13 WRs total have been drafted in the first round with only two being top five picks.
The reason for this is quite simple. The Wide Receiver position with all its glamour and limelight is also easily the most dependent position in football. If a team is looking to rebuild itself out of the ashes, it will rarely start by building around a receiver.
Furthermore, teams have realized that a decent #2 WR is not all that difficult to find and not always worth the risk of a high pick. Braylon Edwards and Calvin Johnson are the only WRs who have been drafted in the top five since 2005, essentially because it was assumed coming out of college that both were going to be much more than decent #2 wideouts.
Edwards is just now starting to live up to expectations and is becoming an elite, game changing WR. He can change a team’s entire passing attack because of the defensive focus on him and improves his entire team by doing so.
However, Edwards is a rare commodity as showed by this list, which ranks every team’s go-to wideout.

Note: Players are not classified as elite, solid or adequate #1 WRs, but rather as elite, solid or adequate wide receivers in general. I am fully aware that Marty Booker is an inadequate #1 WR, but he is an adequate starting receiver in the NFL. Few teams’ best receiver will ever be a fringe starter and most will be solid wideouts.

Elite
1. Randy Moss – New England Patriots – Is 6’4, has unreal leaping ability, excellent deep speed and the ability to make supernatural catches. Caught NFL record 23 TDs last season and is the NFL’s premiere wideout.
2. Terrell Owens – Dallas Cowboys – Has and will always have problems dropping easy passes, but once he has possession there is no receiver more dangerous running after the catch.
3. Chad Johnson – Cincinnati Bengals – 1,300 yards, 8 TDs and an array of controversy are almost guaranteed in a season with Ocho Cinco.
4. Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals – Already has two 100 catch, 1,400 yard and 10 TD seasons in young career despite constant flux at QB position.
5. Reggie Wayne – Indianapolis Colts – Finally got chance last year to be team’s go-to receiver and flourished by leading NFL in receiving yards. He has officially dethroned Marvin Harrison as Peyton Manning’s #1 target.
6. Andre Johnson – Houston Texans – Missed 7 games in what would have been monstrous year. He averaged 94.6 yards per game when healthy.
7. Steve Smith – Carolina Panthers – Question marks at QB position and lack of talent to divert defensive attention away from him has made his job extremely tough, yet he still produced a third straight 1,000 yard season in 2007.
8. Marques Colston – New Orleans Saints – Was robbed of Rookie of the Year crown in 2006 and took another big step forward in second season. Size and hands make him an ideal fit in New Orleans’ offense.
9. Plaxico Burress – New York Giants – Burress has been clutch, dynamic and healthy since signing with Giants in 2005. Caught Super Bowl winning TD and is possibly the league’s best receiving threat near goal line because of his great size.
10. Torry Holt – St. Louis Rams – Had yet another 90-catch, 1,100-yard season in what was an injury plagued, disjoint year for the Rams offense.
11. Braylon Edwards – Cleveland Browns – Has improved every year as a starter since being drafted 2nd overall in 2005, but last year he finally emerged as the elite playmaker he was touted to be coming out of Michigan.

Solid
12. Donald Driver – Green Bay Packers – As consistent as it gets. He has been a great player in Green Bay for a number of years, yet has never truly received the credit he deserves.
13. Roy Williams – Detroit Lions – Possesses all the tools to be an elite Wide Receiver, but injuries, inconsistency and concentration lapses have kept him from making that step.
14. Brandon Marshall – Denver Broncos – Had a phenomenal sophomore season and appears to have a stellar career ahead of him if he can mature on – and especially off the field.
15. Derrick Mason – Baltimore Ravens – The ultimate possession receiver. He may no longer be a game changer, but still caught 103 passes from carousel of mediocre QBs throwing to him.
16. Lee Evans – Buffalo Bills – QB controversy and inconsistency delayed what should have been a true breakout year for Evans. Production increased later in the season.
17. Chris Chambers – San Diego Chargers – Career had begun to erode in Miami. Now with a whole off-season in the Chargers’ system he should be able to jumpstart his career.
18. Joey Galloway – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – He will be 36 this season but still is a legitimate burner with great deep speed. Seems to put up 1,000 every season without getting any recognition whatsoever.
19. Roddy White – Atlanta Falcons – On the verge of being labeled a first-round bust, White broke out with Chris Redman, Joey Harrington and Byron Leftwich throwing to him. Hats off to whoever predicted him to top 1,200 yards before last season.
20. Jerricho Cotchery – New York Jets – Silently has had a pair of very productive years in New York. Outplayed more revered teammate Laveranues Coles last year with 82 catches for 1,130 yards.
21. Kevin Curtis – Philadelphia Eagles – Almost nobody noticed that Curtis topped 1,100 yards in his first full season as a starter. He’s an extremely intelligent player who runs excellent routes.
22. Dwayne Bowe – Kansas City Chiefs – Far and away the NFL’s best Rookie WR had immediate impact and fell five yards short of 1,000 yards with zero talent around him.
23. Santana Moss – Washington Redskins – Injuries have kept him from playing anywhere near record-setting 2005 season level.
24. Bernard Berrian – Minnesota Vikings – He’s a strong deep threat and got a huge contract to fix Minnesota’s passing game.
25. Bobby Engram – Seattle Seahawks – He had a career year at the ripe old age of 34 with 94 catches for 1,147 yards and 6 TDs. Did anyone outside of Seattle notice?
26. Hines Ward – Pittsburgh Steelers – Ward is a great competitor, tough as nails and largely considered the best blocking WR in the NFL, but he’s 32 and hasn’t had 75 catches or 1,000 yards in any of his last three seasons.

Adequate
27. Javon Walker – Oakland Raiders – He’s a legitimate gamebreaker when healthy, but that has rarely been the case. He signed a bigger contract than Randy Moss this past off-season; more damning evidence of Al Davis’ senility.
28. Jerry Porter – Jacksonville Jaguars – Signed to be the go-to receiver the team hasn’t had since Jimmy Smith, but was never really that player in Oakland either.
29. Isaac Bruce – San Fransisco 49ers – Reunited with Mike Martz, is expected to have the same sort of impact that Shaun McDonald had last year in Detroit as an experienced wideout in Martz’s immensely complex system.
30. Justin Gage – Tennessee Titans – Had a surprisingly good first year in Tennessee, but why he and Roydell Williams remain Vince Young’s top outside weapons remains a mystery.
31. Ted Ginn Jr. – Miami Dolphins – Miami’s top pick in 2007 was decent as a rookie, but with the departures of Chris Chambers and Marty Booker, has been thrown into the role of go-to receiver. Coming out of college, most had him as a jack-of-all-traits #2 type of WR.
32. Marty Booker – Chicago Bears – Seriously Chicago, is this really the best you could come up with to replace departed Bernard Berrian? Booker is a decent veteran wideout, but if he’s your #1 guy outside, then you have failed to assemble an even somewhat passable receiving corps.

Sunday, July 27, 2008

RB Power Rankings

The Running Back position has undergone the most change of possibly any position in recent years. The ballooning of Offensive Linemen has made the 1,000-yard milestone a routine task for most starting RBs. Many teams have even had success merely plugging in mediocre, system backs behind great Offensive Lines.
Because so many types of Running Backs are now able to have success in the NFL, many teams have begun to take advantage of the diverse weapons at their disposal by rotating in different backs for different situations.
However, when the game is on the line, every team will have their feature back that will be on the field. So stay put Maurice Jones-Drew, sorry Chester Taylor, sit down Reggie Bush; the other guy is getting the carry this down as this list ranks every team’s top Running Back.

Elite
1. LaDainian Tomlinson – San Diego Chargers – Undeniably the best, most consistent, all-around RB in the NFL.
2. Brian Westbrook – Philadelphia Eagles – League’s most dangerous receiver out of the backfield has become an elite runner despite diminutive stature tallying 2,104 total yards in 2007.
3. Adrian Peterson – Minnesota Vikings – Could dethrone Tomlinson by year’s end if he maintains consistency. Reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year rushed for 296 yards against Chargers but failed to reach 100 yards in each of the final four games.
4. Steven Jackson – St. Louis Rams – Monster 2006 campaign was followed up by disappointing, injury marred season last year. However, when healthy he’s a big, fast, versatile back who is a legitimate threat to put up 2,000 total yards every year.

Solid
5. Willie Parker – Pittsburgh Steelers – Unheralded runner had third straight 1,200 yard season and could have been NFL rushing champion if not for broken fibia suffered in Week 16.
6. Larry Johnson – Kansas City Chiefs – Missed half of the season with injury and struggled when healthy due in part to poor Offensive Line play. Still, he had back-to-back 1,700 seasons before last season and is league’s most punishing runner.
7. Clinton Portis – Denver Broncos - Bounced back with 1,651 total yards in 2007 but had career low 3.9 yards per carry and has a lot of tread on the tires.
8. Frank Gore – San Francisco 49ers – Had 1,538 total yards and six TDs in what was considered a down year for him last season.
9. Willis McGahee – Baltimore Ravens – Had a strong first season in Baltimore despite suspect QB play.
10. Fred Taylor – Jacksonville Jaguars - With Maurice Jones-Drew sharing the backfield, he has become more effective and is closing in on Jim Brown on all-time rushing list.
11. Joseph Addai – Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning keeps defenses from ever stacking the box, and Addai has taken advantage. Has also become a legitimate receiver out of the backfield.
12. Marshawn Lynch – Buffalo Bills – Had impressive rookie season despite missing three games and garnering almost all the attention of opposing defenses.
13. Jamal Lewis – Cleveland Browns – Had a resurgent 1,300-yard season in Cleveland, but may not have much left in the tank.
14. Marion Barber – Dallas Cowboys – Punishing running style is a treat to watch. Now will get chance to carry full load and there’s little that suggests he won’t be able to.
15. Edgerrin James – Arizona Cardinals – Had solid 2007 campaign but hasn’t been the player he was in Indianapolis. Fans and coaches hope he doesn’t catch Shaun Alexander disease.
16. Ronnie Brown – Miami Dolphins – Was having a simply awesome season before severe knee injury ended what was on pace to being a 2,265 yard season. Can he bounce back?
17. Brandon Jacobs – New York Giants – He is by far the biggest RB in the NFL, but still has surprisingly good vertical speed. He missed 5 games last season and still finished with over 1,000 yards.
18. Laurence Maroney – New England Patriots – Patriots’ pass-happy offense hurts numbers; Maroney would be a 1,000-yard runner on a different team.
19. Ryan Grant – Green Bay Packers – Fantastic second half of season solved Packers’ rushing problems. If he can carry the load for a whole season, consider him a franchise back.
20. Earnest Graham – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Has a nose for the end zone. Took over for injured Cadillac Williams and thrived behind emerging Bucs Offensive Line.

Adequate
21. Thomas Jones – New York Jets – Additions of veteran Linemen Alan Faneca and Damien Woody, along with continued improvement by D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold could lead to a big bounce back season.
22. Deuce McAllister – New Orleans Saints – His presence takes pressure off of Reggie Bush, but he may not be ready for start of 2008 season after yet another knee surgery.
23. Rudi Johnson – Cincinnati Bengals – Hamstring injury led to bad season last year, but rotation with Kenny Watson could increase effectiveness at this stage in his career.
24. LenDale White – Tennessee Titans – Proved doubters wrong with good season for Titans. Improved conditioning could allow him to really capitalize on talent and blocking.
25. Justin Fargas – Oakland Raiders – Is a good fit in Raiders’ zone-blocking scheme and had career year in 2007. Al Davis didn’t seem to notice or care and drafted Darren McFadden anyway.
26. Julius Jones – Seattle Seahawks – Signed to replace Shaun Alexander, is a talented runner who fell out of favor in Dallas due to poor work ethic.
27. Michael Turner – Atlanta Falcons – Possibly a boom or bust signing for Atlanta. Was very solid in spell duty, but then again, so was LaMont Jordan.
28. Ahman Green – Houston Texans – Missed 10 games with knee problems, is 31 and has competition in camp, but is still a proven starter who fits Shanahan’s one-cut scheme.
29. Selvin Young – Denver Broncos – One-cut back who didn’t get drafted but bizarrely did well running the ball for the Broncos…sound familiar?
30. DeAngelo Williams – Carolina Panthers – Former first round Scatback hasn’t been impressive enough to earn coaches trust, hence the drafting of bruiser Jonathan Stewart.

Fringe
31. Tatum Bell – Detroit Lions – Detroit will try to employ a zone-blocking scheme in 2008, which gives Bell one last chance to shine since leaving Denver, but rookie Kevin Smith will push him if he doesn’t produce.

Rookies
32. Matt Forte – Chicago Bears – Was a hugely productive, yet under-the-radar RB at Tulane. Cedric Benson’s release gives Forte a chance to make immediate impact.

Friday, July 25, 2008

QB Power Rankings

June, July, August - the season of preseason power rankings. As interesting as they are to glance at while the football season is at an idle stall, they prove so often to be entirely off by the end of the year. Too often, writers look at what teams did the prior year and expect the same results the following year. There is too much parity in the NFL for this to be a reliable evaluation. The better way to judge a team is, simply, by the talent on their roster.

In 2007, the Green Bay Packers were ranked as a middle-of-the-pack team, largely due to their 8-8 2006 record. Their record didn't show the abundance of young talent on their roster that had been jelling for the last two seasons. I had them winning the NFC North based on their talent and I was right. But I too fell into the record trap and completely missed on the New York Giants. In 2006, the 8-8 Giants rallied to a .500 record on the shoulders of Tiki Barber. With his retirement I assumed nothing but a step down for a team. I didn't factor in the talent on both lines and the team I thought would finish 6-10 won the Super Bowl

That is why I've decided, instead of doing another team power ranking, to rate every team's starter amongst their peers. I sorted players into five categories: elite players, solid and adequate starters, fringe players and rookies. The latter automatically ranked at the bottom.

So to begin the series, I'll rank the NFLs 32 starting QBs.

Elite
1. Tom Brady - New England Patriots - He had the rings, now he has the records too.
2. Peyton Manning - Indianapolis Colts - Has a ring, and used to hold the records.
3. Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints - 4,000 yards for two straight years, the most accurate QB in the NFC and a perfect fit in Sean Payton's offense.
4. Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh Steelers - Huge bounce back season in 2007 with 32 TDs and 104.1 QB rating.
5. Carson Palmer – Cincinatti Bengals - Has the weapons outside, but it still takes a great QB to amass 104 TDs in just 4 seasons.

Solid
6. Tony Romo – Dallas Cowboys - Electrifying player, but end of year struggles must stop for him to join the NFL’s elite.
7. Matt Hasselbeck – Seattle Seahawks - Because of the division he plays in, is often forgotten, but all he has done is post a career 86.2 passer rating in 7 consistent years in Seattle.
8. David Garrard – Jacksonville Jaguars – Has only one really strong season under his belt, but throwing only 3 INTs as a starter last year shows tremendous decision-making and accuracy.
9. Eli Manning – New York Giants – Which Eli Manning will show up for 16 games this year?
10. Donovan McNabb – Philadelphia Eagles – Injuries have hurt accuracy and mobility, but is fully healthy for first time since start of 2005 season.
11. Philip Rivers – San Diego Chargers – Tough, gritty QB has all the talent around him to succeed, but an ACL injury to recover from.
12. Marc Bulger – St. Louis Rams – Injuries ruined what should have been best season. Needs better protection to capitalize on weapons.
13. Jay Cutler – Denver Broncos - Solid, composed and a leader despite questionable line play and undependable receivers.
14. Derek Anderson – Cleveland Browns – Came out of nowhere to orchestrate NFLs most improved offense.
15. Jon Kitna – Detroit Lions – Has been sacked 114 times in two seasons with Lions, but has still passed for over 8,000 yards.
16. Jeff Garcia – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Veteran QB doesn’t have a great NFL arm, but just doesn’t make any mistakes.
17. Jake Delhomme – Carolina Panthers - Fiery QB is aging and has missed 16 games in two years.

Adequate
18. Jason Campbell – Washington Redskins - Throws a beautiful deep ball, and now should have better receivers on the other end of them.
19. Matt Schaub – Houston Texans - Was having solid year before injuries ended first season as starter. Might have to battle backup Sage Rosenfels in preseason.
20. Trent Edwards – Buffalo Bills – Was accurate and decisive enough in rookie year to dethrone J.P. Losman as starting QB.
21. Vince Young – Tennessee Titans – Accuracy improved in second season, but threw only 9 TDs and 17 INTs. Gets too much credit for Titans’ recent improvement.
22. Chad Pennington – New York Jets – Is extremely smart, accurate and sound, but has far and away the weakest arm among NFL starting QBs. Will have to hold off Kellen Clemens in preseason.
23. Matt Leinart – Arizona Cardinals – Injured in second year as starter, but was struggling before that. If Arizona wants to contend, Leinart will have to step up or Kurt Warner may again be the starter
24. Alex Smith – San Fransisco 49ers – Former #1 overall pick has one last year to prove he’s not a bust, but he’ll have to win starting job first.
25. Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers – 4th season will really be rookie year. Played well in spot duty last year but has Shaquille O’Neal sized shoes to fill.
26. JaMarcus Russell – Oakland Raiders – Big frame and cannon arm will be given opportunity to prove his worth. It’s questionable whether or not he’s ready.

Fringe
27. Kyle Boller – Baltimore Ravens - Isn’t a terrible QB, but is an inadequate starter. May get to start entire season while raw QB of the future Joe Flacco learns.
28. Rex Grossman – Chicago Bears – Has a great arm, but is inaccurate and absurdly inconsistent. Chicago has decided to give him yet another chance.
29. Brodie Croyle – Kansas City Cheifs - In 6 winless starts in 2007, Croyle had no running game and was sacked 17 times.
30. Tavaris Jackson – Minnesota Vikings – Young QB has suddenly found himself on a team with playoff aspirations. He will be crucial to how far the Vikings actually go.
31. Joey Harrington – Atlanta Falcons – Will start until Matt Ryan is deemed ready. Fringe starter who will remain a decent backup once Ryan era has begun.
32. John Beck – Miami Dolphins – Will battle Josh McCown and rookie Chad Henne for starting job. Beck was a turnover machine in 4 starts last season.