Picking the 2008 Division Winners - Keep in mind, the rule of 4

Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams and 8 divisions, there have been at least 4 new Division Champions every season. In 2003 and 2005, there were 5 new division champions. Last year, there were 4. There is no reason to think next year will be any different.

Here is a breakdown of the divisions every year. New Division champs are in Bold.

2002 - PHI, GRB, TAM, SAF, NEE, PIT, TEN, OAK
2003 - PHI, GRB, CAR, STL, NEE, BAL, IND, KAN - 5
2004 - PHI, GRB, ATL, SEA, NEE, PIT, IND, SAN - 4
2005 - NYG, CHI, TAM, SEA, NEE, CIN, IND, DEN - 5
2006 - PHI, CHI, NOR, SEA, NEE, BAL, IND, SAN - 4
2007 - DAL, GRB, TAM, SEA, NEE, PIT, IND, SAN - 4

So, looking at the entire picture, it's clear which divisions have consistent, dominant winners and which ones have so much parody that the division winner appears impossible to pick.

The AFC East has only ever had one champion. None of the other teams in that division have really been any good since the Patriots became the dynasty they are today. Buffalo appears to be on the rise and the Jets did go 11-5 in 2006, but I would be stunned if the Pats didn't win it next year. Pick: Patriots

The AFC North has never had a team repeat as champions. Pittsburgh and Baltimore have largely been at the top of that division. I would lean towards picking a new winner here. Cincinnati appears to be putrid next year. Baltimore had a bad year and if they plan on playing Joe Flacco next season it would be tough to pick them. This is why Cleveland appears to be the popular pick. They have a dynamic offense and made a number of moves to improve on what was a really bad defense last year. Personally, I tend to shy away from picking young teams the year after they break out (I knew the Jets and the Saints would be mediocre last season), but Cleveland has a great O-Line and added Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams to the D-Line, two players I think are great fits playing in a 3-4 for the first time. Cleveland are investing intelligently and I think it will pay off for them next year. Pick: Browns

The AFC South has been dominated by Indianapolis since Tennessee ended their reign in 2002. Last year, I picked Jacksonville to beat out the Colts. The Jaguars had a great year, but the Colts are just in a class of their own. I will not make the same mistake again and I don't believe in the Titans. The Texans could be a team to look out for next season, but they won't dethrone the Colts. Pick: Colts

The AFC West has had a lot of turnover, mainly because it was such a strong division from 2002-2005. San Diego took over the reins in 2006 and hasn't looked back. They are arguably the most talented team in the league and face little competition from the other teams. Kansas City hasn't been the same since Trent Green was under center. Nobody in Oakland has a clue how to build a roster (DeAngelo Hall, anyone?). Denver was always the model of consistency and very predictable, but their Line got old and is now among the weaker units in the league. LT Matt Lepsis retired. Their interior D-Line is extremely suspect and their LBs are holdovers. Pick: Chargers


The NFC East was dominated by Philly until the Super Bowl loss. But it isn't purely a case of the Eagles getting worse, but also of the rest of the division catching up. Last year, Dallas won the division and were the best team in the division during the regular season. I had that picked, as well. However, the Giants experienced a coming out party in the playoffs. Corey Webster and Eli Manning, in particular came out big time. Even if Eli doesn't come back as strong as he played in the playoffs, that defense is still legit. This is not knocking Philly or Dallas, but the Giants should be favored. Pick: Giants

The NFC North has been dominated by its traditional powers: Chicago and Green Bay. Last year I picked Green Bay to win the division and I was spot on. This year, without Favre we will have to wait and see. Really, they have everything in place, except QB. But in the NFL, that's the spot where you really need to be solid. The division got a lot better last year than in years past. I don't expect much at all from Detroit, especially after letting Mike Martz leave. Minnesota is a popular team to pick, due to the phenomenal ground game, top notch O-Line and ridiculous run defense. The problem, however is at the pivotal QB position. I thought Tavaris Jackson was drafted too early and have never been a believer. My surprise pick is Chicago. They were in the Super Bowl just two years ago and were hit by the Super Bowl loser curse. Their defense, very banged up last year, still has essentially every player who was part of the unquestionably best defense in the league in 2006. I'm not a believer in Rex Grossman, but I believe he's still good enough to win with that defense. I think Matt Forte could be the Rookie of the Year and Devin Hester. Pick: Bears

The NFC South has had the greatest carousel. Not only has there never been a repeat champion, but every year since the creation of the division, the last place team from the year before has won the division the next year. Tampa was last in 2004 and 2006, but won in 2005 and 2007. New Orleans was last in 2005. Atlanta and Carolina were last in 2003 and 2002, respectively. So by that criteria shouldn't Atlanta win the division next year. Come on now, I'm serious. Ok, seriously now, Tampa's 2006 dip was due to injuries for the most part and New Orleans was never as bad as that 3-13 record in 2005 would indicate, that was Katrina more than anything. Atlanta finished last in 2003 because Michael Vick got hurt. In 2002, Carolina was a 7-9 team that was young and up and coming. The only one that was sort of out of the blue was Tampa who made the last to first jump in 2005, but even those teams still had that Super Bowl Champion defense mostly intact. Atlanta is a mess. They have a rookie QB, a horrendous O-Line, a Big Ten caliber Defensive Backfield and a ridiculously fragile D-Line. New Orleans got complacent last year. They rode their offense in 2006, but had a really bad defense that overachieved to be mediocre. They made no moves to boost the defense. Last year, when Deuce McAllister went down, the offense stalled and the defense came back down to earth. This year they addressed the defense by picking up Randall Gay and Jonathan Vilma and Reggie Bush should be fully healthy. That Line of theirs is too good for Bush to not succeed behind. Pick: Saints


The NFC West has been dominated by Seattle since the end of the greatest show on turf essentially because the Rams had to rebuild while the Cardinals and 49ers have been putrid for years. This year, Arizona appears poised to make the leap to the next level, but I can't place them higher than Seattle given their track record. Pick: Seattle


In conclusion, my four new division winners are New York, Chicago, New Orleans and Cleveland.




So, keeping the Rule of 4 in mind, which four (or five) new division winners do you think will emerge in the 2008 season?