Thursday, March 5, 2009

Why not to draft Beanie Wells!

I was listening to Colin Cowherd, and he was talking about slow Big Ten backs not cracking it in the NFL. Now if you ever listen to Cowherd, you know he blindly hates on the Big Ten all the time, so I took it with a grain of salt.

Then I did my own private research. There is a shocking trend of RBs from the Big Ten not panning out. I gathered data from 17 years and it is unbelievable how few actually work out.

Not only did so many first round guys fail miserably, but almost no late round guys turned out to be diamonds in the rough or even solid role players. The closest thing was several guys converted to FB, but unfortunately too many of those guys were 2nd or 3rd round picks, and you are looking for a Pro Bowl FB if you draft a guy that high.

Just look at the data below. I bolded the picks that worked out. It is astonishing. I credit it to two things: 1. Big Ten play is slow, so average RBs look like legitimate NFL prospects. 2. Linemen in the Big Ten are very big and very skilled. They even transition well to the NFL. Average RBs look great behind good O-Lines.

Now you have 3 Big Ten RBs who appear locks to be drafted. Let me give you their combine 40-times:
- Chris Wells 4.59
- Shonn Greene 4.63
- Javon Ringer 4.53

Buyer beware NFL!

Big Ten RBs in the NFL

2008
Rashard Mendenhall – Illinois – Round 1 - 58 yps
Mike Hart – Michigan – Round 6 – 9 yps

2007
Tony Hunt – Penn State – Round 3 – 13 yps
Antonio Pittman – Ohio State – Round 4 – 218 yps

2006
Laurence Maroney – Minnesota – Round 1 – 517 yps
Brian Calhoun – Wisconsin – Round 3 – 27 yps

2005
Maurice Clarrett – Ohio State – Round 3 – 0 yps
Marion Barber – Minnesota – Round 4 – 763 yps – 1 Pro Bowl, Started 1 season
Anthony Davis – Wisconsin – Round 7 – 0 yps
Noah Herron – Northwestern –Round 7 – 137 yps

2004
Chris Perry – Michigan – Round 1 – 121 yps

2003
Larry Johnson – Penn State – Round 1 – 939 yps – 1 AP All-NFL, 2 Pro Bowls, Started 3 seasons

2002
T.J. Duckett – Michigan State – Round 1 – 420 yps – Started 1 season
Ladell Betts – Iowa – Round 2 – 424 yps – Started 1 season
Jonathan Wells – Ohio State – Round 4 – 292 yps – Started 1 season

2001
Michael Bennett – Wisconsin – Round 1 – 403 yps – 1 Pro Bowl – Started 3 seasons
Anthony Thomas – Michigan – Round 2 – 486 yps – Started 3 seasons

2000
Ron Dayne – Wisconsin – Round 1 – 413 yps – Started 1 season
Michael Wiley – Ohio State – Round 5 – 168 yps
Thomas Hamner – Minnesota – Round 6 – 0 yps

1999
Joe Montgomery – Ohio State – Round 2 – 93 yps – Started 1 season
Sedrick Irivin – Michigan State – Round 4 – 91 yps
Sean Bennett – Northwestern – Round 4 – 32 yps

1998
Curtis Enis – Penn State – Round 1 – 499 yps – Started 2 seasons
Robert Holcombe – Illinois – Round 2 – 163 yps – Started 3 seasons
Chris Floyd – Michigan – Round 3 – 11 yps
Tavian Banks – Iowa –Round 4 – 111 yps
Chris Howard – Michigan – Round 5 – 41 yps
Eddie Watson – Purdue – Round 7 – 9 yps

1997
Sedrick Shaw – Iowa – Round 3 – 86 yps
Nicky Sualua – Ohio State – Round 4 – 0 yps
Steve Lee – Indiana – Round 6 – 0 yps

1996
Tim Biakabutuka – Michigan – Round 1 – 421 yps – Started 2 seasons
Eddie George – Ohio State – Round 1 – 1,160 yps – 1 AP All-NFL, 4 Pro Bowls, Started 8 seasons
Mike Alstott – Purdue – Round 2 – 463 yps – 3 AP All-NFL, 6 Pro Bowls, Started 9 seasons
Jon Witman – Penn State – Round 3 – 21 yps – Started 3 seasons
Brian Milne – Penn State – Round 4 – 25 yps – Started 2 seasons
Scott Greene – Michigan State – Round 6 – 39 yps – Started 1 season
Stephen Pitts – Penn State – Round 6 – 0 yps
Mike Archie – Penn State – Round 7 – 8 yps

1995
Ki-Jana Carter – Penn State – Round 1 – 114 yps
Tyrone Wheatley – Michigan – Round 1 – 462 yps – Started 4 seasons
Terrell Fletcher – Wisconsin – Round 2 – 234 yps

1994
Raymont Harris – Ohio State – Round 4 – 358 yps – Started 3 seasons
Mark Montgomery – Wisconsin – Round 7 – 0 yps

1993
Robert Smith – Ohio State – Round 1 – 852 yps – 2 Pro Bowls, Started 6 seasons
Ty Hallock – Michigan State – Round 7 – 8 yps – Started 3 seasons

1992
Vaughn Dunbar – Indiana – Round 1 – 234 yps – Started 1 season
Scottie Graham – Ohio State – Round 7 – 211 yps

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