Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Week 9 Power Rankings: With RSI

This week, I did something very different for my rankings. Up until now, I had simply slotted teams up and down the board due to last week's results. Now 8 weeks into the season, I felt like I could start crunching numbers and weighing wins statistically across the season.

I developed a very simple formula to determine a number called RSI (Record Strength Indicator).

The RSI is based on wins and losses as weighed by my most recent power rankings.

A win is weighed as following: w=33-last ranking. So, the number ranges from 1 through 32. For example, Seattle's win against last week's #29 team (Detroit) would yield a score of 4. (33-29=4).

A loss is weighed very similarly: l=last ranking. So, for example, Green Bay's loss to last week's #32 team (Tampa Bay) would yield a score of 32.

I added all w's and subtracted all l's, then divided that number by the number of games played to finally acquire my RSI value.

This surprisingly held relatively true with the rankings I had previously posted before I crunched the numbers. The only team it appears I was really wrong about was San Diego, who ranked 10 slots higher than I had them last week.

I do realize that to get even better results, I should do the test again with the new rankings posted below, but despite what it may look like, I do have a life. Also, when teams are +/- 1 RSI point of each other, it isn't a significant difference. So don't get all riled up because a team like Dallas ranks higher than Pittsburgh and New England. Their RSI are too similar to draw a true conclusion. For clarity's sake, I bunched these types of teams together.

So let's see how this list turns out.

1. New Orleans Saints - (8-0) - Same - 15.375

2. Indianapolis Colts - (8-0) - Same - 12.125
3. Cincinnati Bengals - (6-2) - Up 3 - 11.625

4. Denver Broncos - (6-2) - Same - 10.500
5. Minnesota Vikings (7-1) - Down 2 - 9.750

6. Dallas Cowboys (6-2) - Up 4 - 7.625
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) - Same - 7.500
8. New England Patriots (6-2) - Down 3 - 7.375

9. Atlanta Falcons (5-3) - Up 2 - 6.000

10. San Diego Chargers (5-3) - Up 10 - 4.750
11. Baltimore Ravens (4-4) - Down 3 - 4.125
12. Arizona Cardinals (5-3) - Same - 3.750

13. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3) - Down 4 - 1.250
14. Houston Texans (5-4) - Up 1 - 0.667
15. Miami Dolphins (3-5) - Up 1 - 0.500
16. New York Giants (5-4) - Down 3 - 0.444
17. New York Jets (4-4) - Same - 0.125
18. Chicago Bears (4-4) - Same - 0.000

19. Green Bay Packers (4-4) - Down 5 - -2.500
20. San Francisco 49ers (3-5) - Same - -3.000
21. Carolina Panthers (3-5) - Same - -3.125
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4) - Up 2 - -3.625

23. Buffalo Bills (3-5) - Same - -4.875
24. Seattle Seahawks (3-5) - Down 2 - -5.750
25. Tennessee Titans (2-6) - Up 3 - -6.000
26. Cleveland Browns (1-7) - Up 5 -6.250
27. Oakland Raiders (2-6) - Same - 6.875

28. Detroit Lions (1-7) - Up 1 - -11.000

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7) - Up 3 - -12.250
30. Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) - Down 5 - -12.875
31. Washington Redskins (2-6) - Down 5 - -13.000
32. St. Louis Rams (1-7) - Down 2 - -13.250

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