Dolphins & Falcons - Bad Sequels in the NFL

Young teams that suddenly overachieve from cellar dwellers to playoff contention are always surprising, but not uncommon. Common, however is that they usually struggle the next year.

They're like terrible sequels to movies that had surprising success to begin with. (I'm talking Caddyshack, American Psycho, Ace Ventura or even Legally Blond) It happens time and time again, but nobody is picking up on it. Remember when the Browns were supposed to win the AFC North? Did people forget that the Jets went 10-6 in 2006 under some guy named Eric ManGenius??? It seems like ancient memory when the Bengals were an up and coming team that went 11-5... and that the Panthers were going to be a perennial contender... and that the Saints were arguably the favorite to go to the Super Bowl before the 2007 season.

There are several simple reasons for this supposed Ugly Duckling transformation:

1. Teams overlook them
   
2. They play an easier schedule due to their low finish the year before
   
3. Young players are more likely to gell more throughout a season than veterans, especially when there's momentum.
4. Players who are just experiencing success and stardom haven't grown inflated egos
   

There are also simple reasons why they tend to underwhelm the next year:

1. Front Offices overrate their personnel and don't make the many moves that had made them successful to begin with (see Saints)
   
2. They play a tougher schedule with a higher previous finish (see Browns)
   
3. Opposing teams suddenly take notice of them and key in on the nuances that were previously overlooked, especially early in the year, and by the time opponents start overlooking them again, they've already lost all possible momentum to get back in contention.
4. The players grow bigger egos and chemistry suddenly becomes a problem (see Bengals, Kellen Winslow)
5. Young players suddenly are playing under pressure that they had not previously faced. (see Everybody)
   

For the aforementioned movies the same thing applies. They featured young, relatively undiscovered stars, low expectations, little room for disappointment (I think Miss Congeniality is the greatest victim of this) and an interesting or unique plot. Then, when a sequel is made, the actors are either overhyped or too big-headed to even appear in them. Writers and directors try to play out the same angle that worked in the first movie, but doesn't work a second time around, and expectations are unfairly higher.

The teams that fall under this curse this year are the Miami Dolphins and the Atlanta Falcons.

Check out the teams Miami beat this year: New England (when the Wildcat freaked everybody out), San Diego (when they weren't a good football team), Buffalo, Denver, Seattle, Oakland, St. Louis, Buffalo again, San Francisco, Kansas City, New York (when Favre decided he to become even more overrated than he already was). Strength of Schedule: Check.

Did good teams overlook them? Absolutely. Especially the teams that thought they were good based on the previous year's success, but really were pretty pedestrian this year. (see New England, San Diego, Denver)Overlooked: Check.

How was the chemistry? Exceptional. The wildcat offense sprung life into a very young roster that rallied around a QB with no arm, a RB addicted to weed and a LB with more dumb opinions than Bill O'Reilly.

Don't get me wrong, there's talent here... but do you really expect them to actively try and improve their roster? No way. ''We went 11-5, we're set at ___ position''

What does their schedule look like next year? Instead of playing the AFC West and NFC West, they'll be playing the AFC South and the NFC South. Instead of playing the Houston Texans, they'll be playing the Tennessee Titans... oh... and they get to play the Steelers, too..

Do you really see teams struggling to defend the Wildcat next year? Especially with the greatest defensive minds in the world having eight months to think about it. Do you really think Chad Pennington will produce when there's pressure to supply results. Do you really think Joey Porter won't tear that locker room apart if they face a rough start? Can you name one member of their secondary... or receiving corps? Other than Ted Ginn, I can't, but I can tell you they're young and their coaches like them... and they won't be supplanted by better players in the off-season.

Conclusion: There is no way the Dolphins sniff the playoffs next year

I think the Falcons actually have a better shot at maintaining respectability, but remember that every year the NFC South's biggest loser has made the playoffs the next... and stabled off after that (see Panthers, Saints), why hasn't this happened to Atlanta yet? Oh wait, I forgot that Jim Mora Jr. happened...

Also remember, that teams took forever to realize how dangerous Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Roddy White really were this past season. People are often slow to pick up on drastically improved play by young players on previously bad teams... imagine underestimating THREE of them.

And if you want to make the argument that Matt Ryan was under more pressure last year because he was replacing Michael Vick, stop it. If Atlanta had gone 5-11 nobody would have said a thing. If Atlanta goes 5-11 next year Mike Smith is on the hot seat.

Speaking of Mike Smith, do you really trust an X's and O's guy to suppress young egos? There are two types of Head Coaches in the NFL: X's and O's guys that are expert strategists and brilliant football minds (Mike Holmgren, Sean Payton, Andy Reid...) and Fire and Brimstone guys that are great speakers, motivators and leaders of men(Mike Singletary, Tom Coughlin, Denny Green). The best coaches are masters at both (Bill Bellicheck, Bill Cowher, Bill Parcells, people named Bill...).

Mike Smith is a strategist. Coaches like him commonly struggle with maintaining chemistry if there's a cancer. (see Wade Phillips, Andy Reid, Marvin Lewis) That's not always a problem, especially if there's already a veteran nucleus, great leadership and a ''been there before attitude in the locker room'' (see Colts, Chargers, Seahawks). But on a team where egos are bound to flair over the off-season, expectations are too high and cancers lurk at OLB and RB, Smith isn't the type of coach I trust to suppress that potential blowup. Romeo Crennel was the most recent victim of this.

Plus, if you look at Atlanta's roster, there are holes EVERYWHERE. They were just covered up by momentum and chemistry, which can offset talent in the NFL during a season (but not the next). Their offensive line is very patchy other than Justin Blalock, Michael Jenkins is somehow still starting at WR, some guy named Justin Peelle (how the #@%& do you even pronounce that?) is their TE and Grady Jackson is still in the NFL apparently and is starting for the Falcons. Their #1 CB is Dominique Foxworth, who I keep confusing for the late Darrent Williams (RIP) for some reason. It just can't be good for a player if someone who watches as much football as I do thinks he's dead everytime I see his name.

Basically what I'm saying is, if you're an Atlanta fan and you expect 15.5 games of healthy John Abraham and 16 sacks, you're dreaming. If you think Roddy White faces single coverage ever again with those receivers, you're dreaming.

''Wait a minute, how do you know Atlanta won't pick up some receivers in the off-season?''. Because other than T.J. Houshmandzadeh, there's nobody out there and young up-and-coming teams don't like to gamble on big names, fearing it could disrupt chemistry and/or cripple the franchise financially. Also, I bet you the coaches like the guys they're working with, and I'll tell you that it's highly unlikely any receiver you draft will provide more impact than Jenkins. Guys like DeSean Jackson, Calvin Johnson and Anquan Boldin are rare immediate impacts. Most rookie WRs take a year or two to get going (see Greg Jennings, Reggie Wayne).

Conclusion: The Falcons will be a .500 team next year.

I don't hate Atlanta or Miami. I'm a Philly fan. These teams mean nothing to me personally. I'm just pointing out an unrealized trend that needs to be addressed. Just watch and see... I'm sure Kung-Two Panda and Tropic Thunder 2: Revenge of the TiVo will be must-see's as well.