NFC Season Projections

Ok, I wrote this on August 30th, 2007. Again, interesting to look back on some things I thought would happen this season.

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Well, after reading up extensively this summer about just about every team in multiple magazines, online and having watched old games, I've reached a conclusion with my picks. Some of these picks are out there, and I am prepared to get blasted. This is a bit different than my normal topics, in that it is much more opinionated than my usual work. I tried to stay unbiased, although Giants fans will disagree. So with no further ado: This is how the 2007 Season will play out in the NFC!

NFC East

1. Dallas Cowboys 11-5

Eagles Fans won't like this, but there really isn't much to dislike about this year's Cowboys. Wade Phillips will attack more which I believe will improve the front seven. I believe Marcus Spears is a breakout candidate, playing a new role for Phillips as opposed to his more conservative role under Parcells. The addition of Hamlin was possibly the most underrated move of the off-season, because it allows Roy Williams to be the force against the run that he is. He now won't have to help out in coverage as much with a legit Center Fielder next to him. The O-Line is strong, the receivers are top notch and the Barber/Jones duo in the backfield is very effective. The injury to Newman, if serious, could change the complexion of this defense; he is a borderline elite NFL corner, but I'm going to assumer he'll lay the majority of the season for now. The thing with Romo is that his struggles last year were in my opinion mostly due to inferior blocking. When he played well, he was sacked around 1 time per game. When he struggled, he was getting dropped about 3 times per game. Leonard Davis was added to help this area and I believe experience will help Romo. Really, Romo's biggest problem is facing pressure. If it becomes clear that he can't play in the face of pressure, this team will be mediocre. However, if he overcomes this, as I believe he will, Dallas will be a legit contender in the NFC.


2. Philadelphia Eagles 11-5*

This was a toss up between these two and I gave the edge to Dallas for because they WILL be decent, even if their problems aren't solved. My Birds are odd this year in that they might be the only team that I really can't say that I have a strong opinion of them. There are just so many question marks: McNabb's health, Young starters on defense being tested for the first time, the play of the DEs, in particular Jevon Kearse...Basically, this team could go anywhere from 6-10 to a Super Bowl title. I'm going to be realistic and say McNabb stays healthy, but the defense remains a bit suspect, better, but still suspect. Thus I think 11-5 is a reasonable record based on that.

3. Washington Redskins 7-9

I think Washington has a talented team, but they just can't stay healthy. People point at their DL, but really the same group of guys played on that line in '05 when the defense was great and actually had similar sack numbers as in '06. The key is Marcus Washington. He is a menace off the edge and could almost single handedly provide the pass rush needed. He was hurt last year and it really hurt the 'skins. I believe Jason Campbell will be a good NFL QB, and I'm basing that primarily on his play at the end of last year, in which he really made surprisingly few mistakes, considering it was his first NFL action. That knee injury looked awful but he is supposedly ready to play again. The Line is very good and the Betts/Portis combo could be lethal. The receivers have their issues, but I'm saying this offense will be great, but it will be okay. I think the defense will bounce back. It won't be at that elite level it once was, but it will be better. London Fletcher provides a stable force in the middle of the defense and Rocky McIntosh has looked good in preseason as far as I've heard. The secondary is a bit suspect, but I'm not saying this team will be great defensively. I just think Washington is a decent team, but if their injuries keep piling up or develop more seriously, we could be looking at a team with a top 5 pick. Let's just hope they stay healthy so I don't look like an idiot here.

4. New York Giants 5-11

Some of you might remember when I wrote a detailed season preview for the entire NFC East back in June. Well it was very well received by Cowboys, Eagles and Redskins fans but I received the worst internet bashing I've ever gotten on the Giants board. And basically I think it's because Giants fans don't realize that this team is not as good as they think. The Sporting News put it perfectly in my opinion: "the team has so many holes that any other organization would consider this a rebuilding year". Frankly, when a team struggles to an 8-8 record by basically one player on his own, and that player retires, you can't expect a good follow up season. Now the Strahan situation adds an extra problem to this team. Their line, outside of Diehl, who moves to LT (gulp), is solid and their receivers are solid - I think Steve Smith was an excellent pick. Eli loses a great checkdown option in Tiki and an insecure QB like Eli needs his checkdown guys; neither Droughns nor Jacobs are close to being as good as Tiki out of the backfield. I think the running game will be decent, not amazing, but pretty good. The offense really isn't the problem; it will be fine. The defense is a mess. Can Osi produce without Strahan? Who will replace Strahan at DE? Is Barry Cofield the answer at DT? What in the world are they going to do with Kiwanuka? I don't like Mitchell at WLB, and neither Wilkerson nor Torber appear to be anything more than holdovers...And finally, the secondary, which is abismal. Gibril Wilson is a pretty good player, but he is on his own. Madison is not anywhere where he once was. Webster never has been anywhere near where was supposed to be. Will Demps had an awful year. A lot is riding on rookie Aaron Ross, but how much can he really help this year? I just see a team that will be decent on offense, but just not enough defensively to be anything better than a 7-9 team.

NFC North

1. Green Bay Packers 10-6

MY SLEEPER! I am on this team's jock right now and I will tell you why. This team has done a great job of quietly just rebuilding the team to the point that it's looking quite formidable, especially on defense. There really isn't a glaring hole on this team. If they stay healthy, the defense will be stout, even dominant at times. I love KGB as a 3rd down rusher and Cullen Jenkins' move to full time starter. The DT spot is deeper and even more talented now with rookie Justin Harrell in the mix. The linebacker are young, talented and have more experience now playing with each other. Brady Poppinga will be to AJ Hawk as Hunter Hillenmeyer is to Brian Urlacher. The secondary has two top notch corners and in Nick Collins a young FS who I believe will bounce back after he hit the wall a bit as a sophomore and return to being the rising star he was as a rookie. On offense, stout bookends Clifton and Tauscher now have solid players between them. Daryn Colledge and Jason Spitz were pretty good as rookies and will continue to improve an OL which I believe will be among the league's best this year. Now, a lot of the reason why I'm so high on Green Bay is also because I see a lot of breakout guys for them. Greg Jennings I think will play like he did at the start of his rookie year and really be a solid compliment to Driver, whose injury luckily appears to be less severe than originally thought. I also think Brandon Jackson will be the Rookie of the year. He enters a great situation: A team that plays in cold conditions, with a good line and few backs to take carries away from him. Really, oddly enough, the biggest retrain on this team is #4. Can Favre cut down on mistakes? In any case, this team went 8-8 last year and with added experience at every spot, two more wins seems completely reasonable. I reviewed their schedule, and if they turn out as good as think they will, the all important home game against Chicago early in the year could be the crossroads for them. I know will get blasted for this pick, but well, it's just my honest opinion and I think I made enough points to validate it.

2. Chicago Bears 8-8

This team just has the classic look of a Super Bowl loser, who FYI have not exactly bounced back too well in years past. You look at all the off-season distractions, you look at some of the pieces they lost and you look at absolutely nothing added really to improve this team and you just see a team that looks to go the same way as many SB losers past. This is Grossman's contract year, and I believe he will force the Bears to go another direction. Frankly, there isn't really THAT much to dislike about this team, but how much was there to dislike about the '05 Eagles? or the '04 Panthers, or even the '06 Steelers? (although they won the SB they still faced many of the same sort of issues that Chicago has this year). It's a shallow projection, I know, but at the end of the year this will have been a mediocre Bears team.

3. Minnesota Vikings 5-11

Awesome Defense. They are so good against the run that teams abandon the run and just throw so much that the secondary begins to look bad on paper, when it is in fact one of the better units in the league. The problem is offense, plain and simple. I am not a believer in Tavaris Jackson, and I can't imagine he's a believer in his receivers. Bobby Wade, Billy McMullen, Troy Williamson...ouch! Visanthe Shiancoe...hardly an improvement at the TE spot. Chester Taylor could very well lead the team in catches in a new role. The line is pretty good, as will be the running game, and maybe 5-11 is a bit low come to think of it, I just can't see them ever coming back in a game with those guys leading the passing attack.

4. Detroit Lions 5-11

Don't you just hate it how every year, the talking heads utter that infamous line: "what out for those Lions in the NFC North!". I'm sure the addition of a flashy wideout helped that little bandwagon this year. Don't buy into that crap. They will be bad again this year, and will be bad every year until the build an O-Line that resembles somewhat of a cohesive unit. They have no RG. Their best OL, Jeff Backus, was very average in '06. Added to that, the injuries to Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell hurt a running game that already wasn't going to be very good. Kevin Jones is a guy who works very well with a lead blocker; put him on the Steelers and he's going to light the league up. Their secondary is bad, their Linebackers, outside of Ernie Sims, are mediocre. Their defensive ends are DeWayne White, a Tampa Bay 3rd down rusher who's being thrown into a starting role, and Kalimba Edwards, who provides very little pressure and is much better versus the run. I question whether Corey Redding will be as hungry as he was in '06. On the bright side, the run defense will be pretty good and the passing game will be awesome in Martz's second year, although Calvin Johnson will have his problems adjusting to the nuances of the Martz offense and come on too late to win the ROY award. They're not terrible, but they're a long way from being good, since they're not really a very young team either. Now with Daniel Bullocks out, you lose another young player who's in an important developmental stage in his career. The offense will rack up yards, but they did last year as well. Basically, you can expect 2006 all over again, which makes me wonder why I'm picking them to win 2 more games this year...hmmm...

NFC South

1. Carolina Panthers 9-7

This team fluctuates, and I think this year they go up again. If the OL stays healthy it's a decent group and Delhomme has plenty of weapons to work with, and DeAngelo Williams will finally start getting the credit he deserves. Delhomme erratic play holds this offense back considerably, which is why they won't be a factor really in the playoffs. Still the defense appears to be pretty good. Mike Rucker seems to be healthy and the DT spot is deep, not to mention Julius Peppers is still around last time I heard. The team hopes Morgan stays healthy this year and I think he will. Thomas Davis will complete the move to LB and Beason will take over for the incumbent Diggs by midseason and be productive. The corners should bounce back from a mediocre '06 campaign. Really, there are a lot of question marks on this team as well, but there have been for several, and the mixed answers to those questions over the past few years explain their roller coaster record quite logically. I think the biggest problem is at Safety, where the retirement of Mike Minter really hurts a Safety position that was already dangerously thin. I can't say I even know who the starters are for the team. In any case, I think the defense will be solid, barring several big plays that this group will give up, and the offense will be decent as well. This is a .500 team that will sneak into the playoffs.

2. New Orleans Saints 9-7*

I have no reason to be picking the Saints to go 9-7 and only slip in as the wildcard. But for some reason I just feel they will feel the slump that a lot of younger teams feel after an initial high. They added some players on defense and lost virtually nobody, but this team, especially the defense, overachieved mightily last season. Sean Payton is a great offensive mind and Reggie Bush will be even better as a sophomore. The offense will stay very potent. They problem is I see many of the overachievers, especially on defense, not repeating what for many were career years. The LB corps is still patchwork and the interior line is suspect which makes me think this team's run defense could stunt it's success this year. I know the argument against this team is vague, but like teh Bears this just seems to be a team that won't repeat its '06 success. Still, you'll still see I pick the team to advance to the Divisional Playoff Round, so they're still a legit contender.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8

This team stumbled in '06 after making the playoffs the year before. People seem to forget that the playoffs were really not very long ago for this team. A lot of that was due to injuries, specifically to the QB position and I think there will be better play from the QBs this year as the team will bounce back to respectability. The LBs are great Cover 2 guys and the line should be pretty good, while the secondary remains relatively solid. Also, the additions of Petitgout and Arron Sears along with the maturity of Davin Joseph and Jeremy Trueblood on offense will allow the OL to be much better this year. Cadillac will bounce back, I see no reason why that wouldn't happen. This team made a lot of changes in the off-season, and I think they will pay off.

4. Atlanta Falcons 2-14

Oh boy. Where do I start? I thought this team would be terrible before they lost Michael Vick, now without him they should be pretty much the worst team in the league. The O-Line does not fit the new power running scheme Petrino is trying to implement, and neither do the RBs. I expect Warrick Dunn will finally hit the wall this year and we learn that Norwood is nothing more than a spark plug as opposed to a workhorse. The vertical passing scheme will feature Joe Horn and Micheal Jenkins, not exactly burners right there. The DT situation is a mess, with Coleman possibly missing considerable time. They lose leadership in Kerney and will be forced to replace him with with a guy in Jamaal Anderson who is not yet ready for the NFL physically. The Secondary, aside from DeAngelo Hall, is a joke. Chris Houston will likely start as a rookie because frankly there is nobody else who even has the potential to develop into even a decent starting NFL CB. Lawyer Milloy is no longer what he once was and neither Chris Crocker nor Jimmy Williams, who is trying to switch to Safety, is much help either. Oh, and Joey Harrington is the QB. On the bright side, Keith Brooking should head a relatively stout group of LBs, but that's about it for the positives on this team. The Falcons are a mess.

NFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks 10-6

There's really no reason why the Seahawks shouldn't be back to their usual selves this year. Shaun Alexander had a down '06, but he's healthy and spelling him more with Maurice Morris should help stay fresh. Hasselbeck should bounce back after struggling in '06, with a deep group of receivers, an above average O-Line and a healthy Alexander. The defense was pretty good in '06 and returns the same core of players, but now has Donovin Darius, Deon Grant and Brian Russell to limit big plays which hurt the team last year. This should look a lot more like the Seahawks we had gotten used to befor '06, unfortunately for them, the NFC West is not quite as lonely anymore, so a clean sweep of the division would be a pretty strong achievement.

2. St. Louis 9-7

Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Drew Bennett, Randy McMichael, Joe Klopfenstein, Stephen Jackson, Brian Leonard. That is a very nice group of receivers right there. A very good group indeed. Now you add a guy in Marc Bulger who has really quietly developed into one of the NFLs very best QBs and you have a very potent offense. The OL is nothing special, but as long as Orlando Pace is there, there isn't too much to worry about. The defense will remain a relatively poor unit. Leonard Little really flies under the radar despite being one of the NFL's premiere ends. James Hall on the other side is adequate and La'Roy Glover is a good mentor to Adam Carriker who is thrown in at DT full time for the first time in his career. Will Witherspoon played well last year, but unfortunately was on his own a lot last year and will find himself in that same situation a lot this year as well. The secondary lacks playmakers and should struggle again as always. But this team isn't about defense, and with all the new weapons, I believe St. Louis' offense will outscore opponents more often this year, and the team should contend in the NFC if all goes to plan.

3. San Fransisco 49ers 8-8

An overly popular pick. I read The Sporting News projecting them to win the West with a 10-6 record. Hold on there. This team is young and talented and if all continues, will be a good team in '08. But this team is still a ways away from making serious noise in the NFC. They added some receivers to help out Alex Smith, who improved last year beyond what most analysts had ever thought and RB Frank Gore broke out in a huge way. The problem is the defense still isn't quite where it needs to be. Are they finally going to commit to the 3-4? The addition of Aubreyo Franklin from Baltimore and Tully Banta-Cain would suggest it. Manny Lawson is a good young talent and if Patrick Willis wins considerable PT this year, he is my pick for defensive ROY. Still, the D-Line is suspect, with 14-year veteran Bryant Young being relied on to anchor it. Is another season like he had in '06 realistic to project for Walt Harris? Hardly, although the addition of Nate Clements will shore op the pass defense considerably, especially if Michael Lewis refinds his form and plays like the Pro Bowler he once was. There really isn't much negative about this team, but they are very young, and will fall short this year. But watch out '08, this team will be dangerous.

4. Arizona Cardinals 6-10

This seems to be the first time that I don't see the Cardinals being picked to be the sleeper of the NFC in a long time. And for some reason it makes me a bit mad. They're actually finally moving in the right division and people are hopping off the bandwagon? What's up with that? Having Lutui and Levi Brown on the OL pushes this franchise into the realm of competently managed teams. The offense should still be great, and Leinart is lucky as hell to have Fitzgerald, Boldin (who for some reason always gets second billing to Fitzgerald despite putting up better numbers EVERY year...weird) and unsung Bryant Johnson. Not to mention the breakout potential of Leonard Pope. The Line isn't quite built to play to Edge James' strengths, so he won't be putting up Indy numbers but he'll be better than he was in '06. The defense has a lot of talented individuals. The key is to fit them together and take advantage of that talent. I heard rumblings of a switch to a 3-4 on occasion. All I can say to that is: Chike Okeafor and Bertrand Berry dropping into coverage sounds uglier than Lindsay Lohan's latest mug shot. In any case, eventually they will figure out how they can get Adrian Wilson, Karlos Dansby, Chike Okeafor, Darnell Dockett and they hope to light a fire under guys like Gabe Watson, Alan Branch and Antrel Rolle. The defense will be a mess this year, but it seems like the coaching staff is aware of that, so they're going the way of trial and error to fit the puzzle together. The franchise is moving in the right direction, but the fundamentals of a winning team: OL play and a stout defense, aren't quite there yet, although they have been addressed, which is saying a lot for the Cardinals.


Playoffs:


Wild Card Round:

*Eagles over Panthers

This is just a case where the better team will come out on top

*Saints over Packers

Playoff experience in New Orleans will trump the young Packers, in what hopefully will finally be Favre's last hurrah.


Divisional Playoff Round:

*Eagles over Seahawks

This is just a terribly difficult game to pick but the idea is that if we went 11-5 and beat Carolina, we should be rolling on all cylinders and should win here

*Cowboys over Saints

This was really tough as well. I picked Dallas, for no other reason than, because if the season turns out as well as I project for them, they will be the better team in this game.


Conference Championship:

*Eagles @ Cowboys

I think we all know how this one would turn out . in any case this would be a simply awesome NFCCG right here.




Well there's a pretty long post for ya. Took a while to write.

I would do the AFC as well right now but it's really late and I'm tired so that'll come later.

Sorry for all the millions of errors I made in writing this.